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Agriculture • Prices for corn and soybeans, five years from now

Prices for corn and soybeans, five years from now
Stu Ellis, FarmGate blog | Updated: 05/10/2013

Although challenges to planting the 2013 crop may provide some degree of support to corn and soybean prices, they have quickly faded from the 2012 highs and are threatening to diminish further from the highs that began in 2007. When corn prices were pumped up from ethanol demand and soybean prices had to bid for acres, a new era of commodity prices was declared by economists. Since we are six years into that era and prices are settling down as predicted, how far down will they settle, anyway?
Iowa State University economists Dermot Hayes and Lisha Li leave little doubt they believe commodity prices are high now, but offer some long term projections which may be valuable for farmers to engage in some long term financial planning. After all, if commodity prices fade further, it may be hard to make the cash rent payment. The economists offer a formula for projecting corn and soybean prices out for five years, using the same type of calculations used by USDA’s Risk Management Agency for establishing revenue guarantees for crop insurance.
Their contention is that economic models designed to predict prices are not as good as the use of commodity futures prices, since traders are using information that helps establish prices. However, the more distant the contract the less the liquidity behind it and the less valuable it becomes as a predictor of prices into the future. Subsequently, the Iowa State economists have projected a six year price trend, based on the futures market, plus an implied volatility factor. But they are quick to qualify the accuracy of their projection, “Of course, any projected price level is subject to enormous uncertainty, and this uncertainty expands as one looks further and further into the future.”
Based on graphs that depict the price trend from their formula, they say corn futures will fall to a level just under $5 by December 2017. And soybean prices are expected to fall to about $11 per bushel by the same time frame. They say, “These prices suggest that futures traders expecting continued demand growth will hold prices at what can be considered historically high levels. However, the projected prices are substantially below current levels, indicating that traders expect world supply to expand to eliminate the current scarcity of corn and soybeans.”
While those would be considered average prices for corn and soybeans five years out from now, there is also the change those might not be achieved, and Hayes and Li offer a “worst case scenario” made up of the bottom 10 percent of potential prices. Any farmer who is creating a valid marketing plan should be aware of the potential for the worst-case-scenario.
Year
Corn
Soybeans
2013
$4.27
$9.69
2014
$3.85
$8.89
2015
$3.41
$7.85
2016
$3.12
$7.09
2017
$2.89
$6.55
The Iowa State economists say, “These extremely low prices levels are unlikely, but they do give one pause.”
Summary:
Based on futures prices and their implied volatility, which are used for setting crop insurance revenue guarantees, it is also possible to project corn and soybean prices several years out. This will help farmers with cash flow projections.

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-new … 08131.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Fri May 10, 2013 9:49 am


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Agriculture • Drought marches to the west

Drought marches to the west
Angela Bowman, Staff Writer | Updated: 05/09/2013

Drought Monitor map, released on May 9, 2013.
Rain and snow over the past several weeks have helped beat the drought into remission across much of the Corn Belt, but as 48 percent of the country remains in moderate or worse drought, more states brace for another year of drought.
In the thirsty heartland, in particular, some states are split between improving and worsening drought.
According to the latest Drought Monitor report, 23 percent of Kansas and 9 percent of Oklahoma remains under exceptional drought. The spread of this drought in both states has been doused with welcomed rain and even been eliminated in some eastern counties.
In the western half of these states, however, the Drought Monitor tells a different story. Rain bypassed western Oklahoma and Kansas, leaving these areas in extreme or worse drought.
Further to the west and south, however, the Drought Monitor paints a grim picture. Intense drought is returning to Texas, New Mexico and Colorado as it creeps its way further to the west. Conditions in New Mexico in particular have declined dramatically for the last month. In early April 4 percent of the state was in exceptional drought – this week that number stands at 40 percent.

However, residents in these parched states have turned the pressure of drought into a resurgence of faith. The Associated Press reports that the tension from three year of hot, dry weather has pushed more people to turn to religion. From Christian preachers and Catholic priests to American Indiana Tribes, more and more are turning to fair because, as active church member pointed, “praying can’t hurt.”

The impending drought in the west has also prompted officials in Oregon, a state better known for its wet weather, to warn that irrigation will likely have to be shut off to many of the 200 farms and ranches in the upper Klamath Basin.

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-new … 63661.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Thu May 09, 2013 9:39 am


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Agriculture • US farmers behind in spring plantings by 48m acres

US farmers behind in spring plantings by 48m acres
The extent of the delays in US spring sowings reached the equivalent of an area the size of Hungary and Portugal combined as cold and wet weather, including snows which "smashed all May records" in Iowa, kept farmers from fieldwork.

US farmers had planted just under 25m acres with spring crops by Sunday, compared with an average of 73m acres by then, Agrimoney.com analysis of US Department of Agriculture crop progress and prospective planting data shows.

The gap of 48m acres, some 196,000 square kilometres, is equivalent to the size of South Dakota, the 17th largest US state, or to a country half the size of Zimbabwe.

And it reflects the extent of the weather setbacks which left farmers further behind in most crops – bar oats and rice in which they managed some catch-ups, but to nowhere near average levels.

‘Smashed records’

The lag in corn sowings rose by some 8.8m acres to 34m acres, thanks to the extent of cold and wet weather across much of the Midwest, including in Iowa, the top corn-producing state, which received an average of 3.4 inches of snow, reaching 13 inches in Osage.

"The week’s snowfall smashed all previous May snowfall records in Iowa," USDA scouts said, reporting just 8% of corn sown as of Sunday, compared with an average of 56%.

"Although farmers were able to plant some corn before the weather turned mid-week, planting progress is the latest since 1995."

In Indiana, corn planting progress, at 8% completed, was rated "20 days behind the five-year average pace", while growers in Illinois had planted just 7% of their crop, below an average of nearly one-half.

"Warmer temperatures were beneficial but just as the soils started to dry out rains started falling again," scouts said.

"Just as floodwaters were receding an additional 3-4 inches were received in some locations.

"Many fields were too wet to even apply chemicals and are greening up with weeds which will require additional tillage or chemical burn down before planting can be accomplished."

Wheat sowing progress

For soybeans, the first planting progress rating of the season estimated 2% of area seeded, below an average of 12% and only marginally ahead of 1984′s record low figure of 1%.

However, growers did make more notable progress on spring wheat, with plantings reaching 23% complete, as the thaw and drier conditions allowed tractors onto the field in the northern US.

"Towards the middle of the week, producers were able to start preparing fields for seeding and applying fertilizer and pre-plant herbicides," USDA scouts in North Dakota, the top spring wheat state, said, although in Minnesota growers were seen having "another difficult week getting into their fields".

Wheat baled for hay

The USDA crop progress report also nudged lower by 1 point to 32% the proportion of winter wheat rated in "good" or "excellent" condition, compared with 63% a year before.

The low rating is a reflection of the drought which has setback hard red winter wheat in the US Plains for much of the growing season, with a succession of late frosts hurting southern areas over the last month too.

In Oklahoma, which experienced "another significant freeze" last week, "below-normal precipitation, multiple freeze events and hail storms have all damaged small grains", scouts said, cutting to 20%, from 23%, the proportion of winter wheat rated in good or excellent health.

In Texas, where only 7% of winter wheat makes the top two grades, "dry, windy conditions combined with overnight freezes" continued to hurt crops across much of the state.

"While producers still expect to harvest some of their wheat for grain, many fields were being baled for hay," scouts said.

"Insurance adjusters were busy evaluating fields."

*This week’s Agrimoney.com sowing calculations include data for soybeans and peanuts, for which the USDA had not reported sowings data previously this season.

Excluding these two crops, US spring plantings reached 23m acres, more than 40m acres behind the typical pace, compared with a lag of 31m acres the week before.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-farmer … -5805.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Tue May 07, 2013 11:32 am


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Agriculture • Starving The World For Power And Profit: The Global Agribus

Starving The World For Power And Profit: The Global Agribusiness Model
SUNDAY, MAY 5, 2013
Contributed by Don Quijones, a freelance writer and translator based in Barcelona, Spain. His blog, Raging Bull-Shit, is a modest attempt to challenge some of the wishful thinking and scrub away the lathers of soft soap peddled by our political and business leaders and their loyal mainstream media.

A daily ration of bread is now beyond the reach of roughly a billion people on planet Earth. What’s more, hunger is spreading like a pandemic, making incursions from its traditional strongholds in the global south to towns and cities across depression-hit Southern Europe. In Greece reports are growing of young children having to scrounge for food from classmates, while in Spain city dwellers have become all but inured to the daily spectacle of people of all ages, genders and walks of life rummaging in rubbish bins for a bite to eat.

Some people point to this 21st century hunger pandemic as evidence of the unsustainability of current population growth — and to an extent they’re probably right. After all, there’s only so many people that the world’s rapidly declining resources can sustain. However, as Esther Vivas of the Pompeu Fabra University’s Centre of Studies on Social Movements points out (video), the crude reality is that many of us continue to live in a world of food abundance.

The problem of world hunger, she says, is the result of the acute inefficiencies of a global agribusiness model geared purely at generating ever larger profits for the handful of businesses that now control the global food chain. Tragically, all too often the human cost is measured in the lives of those who don’t have enough money to pay the rapidly escalating prices of basic foodstuffs. And it’s a heavy cost indeed: according to some estimates, one person dies of hunger every 8-12 seconds.

Vivas offers sharp insights on a global industry that prioritizes, at pretty much every turn, profits and power over human welfare. Unfortunately, the video is only available in Spanish and without English subtitles, so for those of you whose linguistic talents don’t quite extend to the Spanish tongue, here’s a brief summary of the highlights:

Supermarket Dominance

Like most countries, the distribution, wholesale and retail of food is dominated by a handful of supermarket chains which, through their oligopolistic structures, are able to more or less dictate what people eat, how much they pay for their food and how much farmers receive for their produce. Needless to say, it is a model that is wiping out small local farmers throughout Europe and the U.S., as well as leaving a terrible toll on the environment due to the vast distances much of our food has to travel before reaching our plates.

Food Speculation

The same people who kindly brought us the subprime crisis and the resultant Great Recession are now speculating vast quantities of money on the price of basic foods on the international commodity exchanges. As a result, the prices on these exchanges are no longer determined by real-world conditions of supply and demand but rather by the financial interests and whims of a small but extremely powerful group of big banks and hedge funds, many of whom have been gorging at the trough of taxpayer largesse for the last five years (for more information on the financialisation revolution, read this).

The Fatal Cost of Price Shocks

In countries like Ethiopia and Somalia, the price of essential foodstuffs more than doubled in the space of just a couple of months in the summer of 2011. In these countries many families spend as much as 80 percent of their disposable income on food, so when the price doubles, they go without.

The Famine Myth

Whenever famines take place, the media tends to pin the blame on meteorological problems, droughts or war, often ignoring the elephant in the room: the wholly inefficient and inhumane global agribusiness. Indeed, what we’re rarely told is that many countries in the global south were largely self-sufficient in food production until the late 1970s.

In the 80s and 90s, however, the rise of the global “free trade” movement meant that many local farmers suddenly faced fierce competition from some of the world’s biggest food producers — companies which received vast subsidies from the U.S. government or E.U. and were thus able to produce huge food surpluses, which they them dumped on some of the world’s poorest countries at below-cost price.

The result was all too predictable: peasant farmers and small holders were priced out of the market and countries which had for centuries been self-sufficient in food production became wholly dependent on food imports — hence their stark vulnerability today to food price shocks.

The Privatization of Virtually Everything

The breakneck pace of privatisation of land and seeds in the last 30 years has massively enriched the political and economic elites of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, at the expense of the general population. As much as 70 percent of the world’s seeds now belong to a handful of huge multinational conglomerates, granting them virtual control over the global food chain. Seeds, which for millenia have been a common good to be shared out and improved among small communities of farmers, are now almost the sole preserve of companies like Monsanto and Syngenta, which brings us to:

The GM Revolution

As global hunger rises, ever-greater pressure is being brought to bear on countries to embrace GM technologies — despite clear evidence of the risks they pose. [According to an international study from 2008, the industrialisation of agriculture, of which GM is a part, has led to the heavy use of artificial fertilisers and other chemicals. These have in turn harmed the soil structure and polluted water ways. What's more, the leaching of the soil of essential minerals means food is less healthy than 60 years ago].

Perhaps most importantly, legitimate concerns remain about the impact on GM foods on human health. For this reason, countries across Europe including Germany, France, Switzerland and Greece continue to prohibit sales of GM food. But not so in Spain, where GM crops are routinely tested, grown and sold to unsuspecting consumers. [Indeed, Spain has more large-scale plantations of genetically modified seeds than any other country in the European Union (EU), accounting for 42 percent of all field trials of genetically modified crops in the EU, according to figures from the European Commission Joint Research Centre].

We Are What We Eat

Clearly, if we regularly consume GM products or food with high levels of pesticides, flavorings and chemical fertilizers, the long-term toll on our health will be heavy indeed. But despite what we are often told by Agribusiness representatives, there are alternatives out there. We can choose to buy healthier options such as local organic food, and in turn help to support local farmers. We can even develop our own urban allotments, as more and more city dwellers are choosing to do. The most important thing is not to descend into apathy and resignation, for that is precisely what the world’s major food corporations want.

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/201 … busin.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Mon May 06, 2013 6:11 am


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Agriculture • Informa cuts winter wheat estimate after tour data

Informa cuts winter wheat estimate after tour data
Informa Economics raised to 20% its estimate for the drop in the US hard red winter wheat crop as analysts digested the on-the-ground estimates which forecast the largest crop abandonment rate in Kansas since 1996, when prices set a record high.

Informa cut by 52m bushels to 798m bushels its forecast for the hard red winter wheat harvest, which accounts for the majority of the US winter crop.

The downgrade followed the closing on Thursday of the annual Wheat Quality Council tour, which pegged the yield in the top growing state of Kansas at 41.1 bushels per acre, below an estimate of 49.1 bushels per acre at least year’s event, and an actual 2012 yield of 42.0 bushels per acre.

Comparison with 1996

A separate tour of neighbouring Oklahoma, another major hard red winter wheat state, estimated the yield at 25.45 bushels per acre, down nearly 30% from the 2012 actual yield of 36.0 bushels per acre.

Meanwhile, the Nebraska Wheat Growers Association estimated the Nebraska crop at 30 bushels per acre, down 27% year on year, while Colorado Wheat pegged the Colorado yield in line with last year’s, at 34 bushels per acre, but with a higher abandonment rate.

Signally, the Wheat Quality Council tour pegged the Kansas abandonment rate at 18%, which would be the highest since 1996, when the state’s harvest was the smallest, bar one, since 1968 – sapped by dryness and relatively late hard freezes, albeit not into May as seen this year.

The poor state of the state’s 1996 crop helped drive hard red winter wheat futures, as traded in Kansas City, to a record high of $7.44 a bushel that year – a level not seen again for a further 11 years.

Range of estimates

Informa pegged the overall US winter wheat harvest this year at 1.529bn bushels, down from the previous estimate of 1.581bn bushels

The forecast for the soft red winter wheat harvest was nudged 1m bushels lower to 508m bushels, with the forecast for white winter wheat production left unchanged at 222m bushels.

Nonetheless the estimates are higher than those from some other analysts, including Lanworth, which this week forecast a 1.45bn-bushel winter crop, including 720.7m bushels of hard red winter wheat.

Market estimates for the hard red winter wheat crop reported to Agrimoney.com have tended to be around the 750m-780m bushel mark, although Australia & New Zealand Bank forecast a drop of only 15% in output, to some 850m bushels.

Last year, the overall US winter wheat harvest reached 1.68m bushels, according to US Department of Agriculture data.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/informa-c … -5801.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Sat May 04, 2013 2:18 am


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Agriculture • Canadian grain stocks fall to multi-year lows

Fri 3rd May 2013

Canadian grain stocks fall to multi-year lows
Canada is braving a delayed sowing period, threatening a late harvest and increased reliance on old crop supplies, with the smallest wheat stocks in five years, the smallest canola inventories in eight years and thinnest barley supplies on record.

Canada’s stocks of all its top-10 crops, bar corn and rye, were lower at the end of March than a year before, Statistics Canada data showed.

Inventories of oats tumbled furthest, by 30% to 1.21m tonnes, the lowest March-end figure in a decade.

However, the drop in canola inventories was not much slower, down 25% to 3.91m tonnes, the weakest for the time of year since 2005.

And the important wheat-stocks figure was also lower, by 8.1% to a five-year low of 13.5m tonnes.

Sowing delays

Signally, unlike the US March stocks data released more than a month ago, which sent grain prices tumbling worldwide, the Canadian figures fell short of market expectations, which for canola were for stocks of at least 4.1m tonnes, and for wheat of 13.9m tonnes.

Yet they come as poor weather is delaying the important spring sowing period, meaning that users will have to rely longer on old crop supplies, whether or not yields are penalised by planting hold-ups.

"We view Canadian planting prospects over the next three weeks as of far greater importance to trade than old crop stocks," Richard Feltes, at Chicago broker RJ O’Brien, said.

However, another US analyst told Agrimoney.com: "The stocks figure cannot be dismissed too lightly.

"If the harvest is delayed, yet the old crop is tight, that does look like creating a chance of a bit of a squeeze in the market as buyers wait for new crop."

Barley concerns

In barley, the data – which showed inventories falling 9.7% to a record low for March of 2.96m tonnes – stand to provoke further nerves among buyers already concerned at sowing delays, particularly in the malting barley market.

"The general sentiment in the malting industry is nervous as ‘act of god’ clauses in barley contracts in Canada and North Dakota become more likely to be enacted as the potential late crop becomes ever more likely," malting barley consultancy RMI Analytics noted last week.

"As we have seen in Canada the planting of barley in early June can lead to frost, rains and even snows at harvest – not a good event for meeting malting specifications."

Dearth of data

Sowing progress of Canadian spring crops, while seen being heavily delayed like that of North Dakota, is hard to gauge accurately because of a void of official reports – reflecting the slow start.

The Prairies province of Alberta is to release its first crop progress report on May 10. Farmers had sown 55% of spring crops by May 17 last year, with an average of 67%.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan provinces have yet to announce the start of their crop progress reports, which began last year on April 23 and April 19 respectively.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/canadian- … -5800.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Fri May 03, 2013 1:33 pm


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Agriculture • Is the Corn Belt drought over? Not yet

Is the Corn Belt drought over? Not yet
Angela Bowman, Staff Writer | Updated: 05/02/2013

Drought Monitor map released on May 2, 2013.
Spring rains helped some key agricultural states loosen the drought’s stranglehold, but with summer less than two months away, concern lingers.
The latest Drought Monitor report, released on Thursday, shows that 46.9 percent of the nation is in moderate or worse drought. This is slightly improved from last week’s 47.3 percent.
In the Corn Belt, where drought has persisted extensively since last fall, a surge of wetter weather systems have helped alleviate some of the drought’s pressure.
Nebraska, once cloaked with extensive drought, now shows signs of improving. Currently 77 percent is in extreme to exceptional drought, down considerably from 96 percent reported at the beginning of the year.
South Dakota has showed similar reprieve from the drought’s grasp with 21 percent reported in extreme drought, down from 29 percent last week.
Not all states are as lucky. Some – like Oklahoma and Kansas – are states split by drought. In areas were conditions are improving, primarily in the eastern half of both states, the end to the drought could be near. But for those where little relief is seen, conditions only continue to worsen.
In Oklahoma, 31 percent is in extreme drought, with the majority of this intense drought located in western areas of the Sooner State.
Colorado and Texas will soon be dominated the headlines as the drought deepens. Further to the west drought is also becoming a bigger story.

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-new … 28451.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Thu May 02, 2013 1:28 pm


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Agriculture • Investors underrating hard red winter wheat threat

Investors underrating hard red winter wheat threat
Investors are underrating the risk to US hard red winter wheat, attributing it a relatively modest premium over Chicago-traded soft red winter wheat given the risks posed by drought and frost, Australia & New Zealand Bank said.

Hard red winter wheat futures for July, as traded in Kansas City, have, at some $0.80 a bushel, a far higher premium over Chicago July futures than a year ago, when it fell below $0.20 a bushel.

However, even that is not enough to account for the poor condition of the hard red winter wheat crop, which has been sapped by drought and late frosts, Paul Deane, senior ag economist at ANZ, said.

As of Sunday, 23% of US hard red winter wheat was in "good" or "excellent" condition, analysis of weekly US Department of Agriculture crop condition data show, less than half the figure seen in good years – and, signally, below the 24% seen at this time in the 2011 drought.

In that season, the wheat yield in Kansas – the top growing state for hard red winter wheat and indeed wheat overall – slumped by 22% to 35.0 bushels per acre.

"The latest US wheat condition ratings point to a hard red winter wheat crop in worse condition" than then, Mr Deane said.

Some recovery time left

There was reason to expect the premium of Kansas-traded wheat over Chicago grain to remain short of the levels approaching $1.40 a bushel seen two years ago.

This year, condition ratings were particularly poor in states such as Nebraska and South Dakota where crops "still have some time for yields to recover, given their later development", Mr Deane said.

Furthermore, the bank – while foreseeing a drop of some 15% in the US hard red winter wheat crop, implying output of about 850m bushels – said that supplies were not on course to hit "extremely low levels", with no repeat expected in 2013-14 of the draw on US wheat supplies from livestock feeders, facing elevated corn prices.

‘Upside price risk’

However, "several catalysts could yet push Kansas wheat prices higher", flagging the potential for a low figure in the USDA’s first full balance sheets for world crops in 2013-14, released on May 10.

While early reports from this week’s Wheat Quality Council tour of Kansas state crops "have been positive for yields, the areas views to date have been in central regions, where weather has been kinder to crops", Mr Deane said.

"Overall, we still see some upside price risk for Kansas wheat, but Chicago wheat prices look overvalued further out the curve."

ANZ recommended a long trade in Chicago Kansas options, hedged against a short position in Chicago December futures.

Further frost

The comments contrast with those earlier this week from Macquarie, which said that it was soft red winter wheat on which investors should be focusing their concerns, given the demand for the grain.

The hard red winter wheat crop may not turn out to have such bad yields as many investors are factoring in, Macquarie added.

However, the crop as yet faces a further frost risk, with talk of temperatures in the mid-to-low 20s Fahrenheit later this week.

"Weather forecasts are wet and cold which has not changed much from early in the week," Paul Georgy, president of broker Allendale, said.

"The GFS and the European weather models are suggesting freezing temperatures could reach the Texas panhandle on Friday morning."

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/investors … -5789.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed May 01, 2013 9:38 am


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Agriculture • Lag in US spring plantings reaches 31m acres

Lag in US spring plantings reaches 31m acres
The setbacks to US spring sowings from cold and wet weather have left farmers behind on their plantings by an area the size of the Austria and Denmark combined – with little hope of relief for now.

Growers had planted some 13.8m acres with spring crops as of Sunday, according to Agrimoney.com comparisons of weekly US Department of Agriculture crop progress data with the areas farmers had planned, according to an official report last month.

The figure represented progress of 2.9m acres on the week, well behind the roughly 19m acres that an average pace of plantings would dictate

The lag doubled to 31.1m acres (12.5m hectares) the area that growers are behind the typical pace, an area equivalent to the size of Mississippi, or a little over half the size of the UK.

‘Bracing for 4-5 inch rains’

The bulk of the delay reflected in the main the record-slow pace of corn plantings, at 5% complete compared with 31% normally by now, the most popular crop among the eight covered so far by the US data, including sugar beet, sorghum and spring wheat.

(The USDA has yet to publish sowings data on soybeans, which are not included.)

However, progress was behind in all the other seven crops too, bar sorghum, for which progress was level with last year, at 27%.

And forecasts indicate little change of farmers playing catch-up for now, with rain and snow expected this week.

Richard Feltes, at Chicago broker RJ O’Brien, said that the "weather leans positive" for prices, with Iowa, the top corn-producing state, bracing for 4-5 inch rains, and surrounding area 2-2.5 inch amounts, followed by a temperature plunge, 15 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, and only a slow return to normal early-May temperatures".

Corn sowings as of this Sunday look "unlikely to top 10-11%, versus a normal figure of 47% – putting 2013 season solidly in record books as the slowest start in history".

Spring wheat hopes

One crop where some commentators have shown hope is spring wheat, for which seedings were, at 12% complete, 25 points behind normal as of Sunday, but with hope of improvement now snows are melting in the northern US, as well as in Canada.

"Northern spring wheat areas have flooded from sudden, rapid snowmelt. Fields are still frozen. North Dakota wheat was 2% sown by April 28, the US largest spring wheat state. That compared to 63% planted last season. Minnesota wheat planting had not yet begun.

Gail Martell, at Martell Crop Projections, said, while two years ago in North Dakota, the main spring wheat state, a "slow and heavy snow melt led to extremely wet field conditions, delaying wheat planting by three weeks", farmers may end up doing better this time.

"The sudden, rapid snow-melt this season may promote somewhat earlier planting [than 2011], due to heavy run-off and thus less-wet field conditions."

Crop scouts in North Dakota, where only 2% of wheat was planted as of Sunday, said that farmers had been limited to 1.0 days’ fieldwork last week thanks to wet fields, although this was an improvement on the 0.1 days the week before.

In Minnesota, USDA scouts said that "very limited fieldwork has begun on higher ground and well drained fields", which have seen the heavy quantities of snow melt run off.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/lag-in-us … -5786.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:23 am


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Agriculture • Force majeure, in barley delivery contracts, more likely

Brewers ‘nervous’ as malting barley hopes diminish
Malting barley premiums look set to remain strong thanks to the spring plantings setbacks rendering North American brewers "nervous", and seen sparking a sharp rebound in import needs in the key German market.

The malting barley premium over feed, which has already recovered in Europe from nominal levels late last year to E40 a tonne, "will remain high for the coming months", RMI Analytics said.

"The supply and demand balance for the coming crop on 2-row spring malting barley in the European Union looks far less optimistic compared to last year," the Swiss-based consultancy said.

"In addition, we expect negative news in the weeks ahead concerning weather and hence plant development, which will immediately push prices higher."

German imports to soar

The comments came even as market estimates emerged of a sharp drop in spring barley plantings in German, potentially by some 40% to 360,000 hectares, because of the cold and wet spring, with the south east of the country seen particularly a risk.

A decline of the level suggested "will leave Germany, Europe’s biggest user of malting barley, with over 1m tonnes to import next season", UK grain traders at a major European commodities house said, terming the slice a rare piece of fortune for Britain’s own rain-plagued growers.

"This is good news for UK malting barley growers," major suppliers of malting barley to Germany, "who will look to utilise this extra demand".

Germany’s import needs in 2012-13 are estimated by Evergrain, the Swiss-based broker, at 265,000 tonnes, although this is an unusually low number, depressed by high domestic sowings of spring barley last year following a cold snap which forced farmers to abandon many winter crops.

‘Malting industry is nervous’

Prospects for production of spring barley, the source of most malting barley, in North America have also deteriorated with the persistent snow cover which has prevented farmers in northern US states and much of the Canadian Prairies from making a start on plantings.

RMI said: "Comments from farmers across the snow-covered area is that they will be lucky to get their crops sowed by the beginning of June," even assuming land is not flooded by snowmelt.

With supplies of left-over 2012 barley "very tight", brewers "are starting to take further coverage into 2014 deliveries but the general sentiment in the malting industry is nervous", RMI said.

Force majeure, or "act of God" clauses in barley delivery contracts in Canada and North Dakota "become more likely to be enacted as the potential late crop becomes ever more likely".

Late plantings imply a late harvest, exposing crops to the risk of early frost, and a decline in malting quality.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/brewers-n … -5775.html

Statistics: Posted by yoda — Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:20 am


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