UK to see big wheat imports as weak crop confirmed
Expectations of hefty UK wheat imports, potentially even from the US, firmed as farm officials confirmed the dismal domestic harvest, pegging yields at the lowest in 20 years, hurt by pressures from "high levels of disease".
The poor quantity, and quality, of the UK wheat crop, coupled with demand spurred by the opening of bioethanol capacity, could see imports "rise as far as 2.5m tonnes, or higher", Jonathan Lane, trading manager at merchant Gleadell said.
"Import amounts continue to rise as millers turn to imports to blend or replace UK supplies," he said, adding that imports of 2.5m tonnes would be "a figure not seen for many years", besides one which has constrained milling premiums despite the weak harvest.
It would also appear likely make the UK, unusually, a net wheat importer. UK wheat imports in 2011-12 came in at 867,000 tonnes, well below exports of 2.39m tonnes, customs data show.
‘Mills have been struggling’
The idea of significant imports was also flagged by UK grain traders at a major European commodities house, who highlighted talk over the trouble that mills were having generating flour from a poor quality domestic crop.
While lowering to 70 kilogrammes per hectolitre, from 76 kilogrammes per hectolitre, their hurdle rate for specific weight – a key quality metric – they will take for top grade wheat, mills "have been struggling" with the grain.
They have reportedly been "running flat out for 24 hours a day but still are unable to produce enough flour for their customers due to the very poor extraction rates", the traders said.
With German milling wheat "available delivered into the northern mills at about the same price as full spec Group 1s, and with consistent quality and specific weights well over 76 kilogrammes per hectolitre, It’s no surprise that millers are turning to this better material".
Imports from the US?
For Group 3 milling wheat, used in making biscuits, the dearth of supplies may even force millers to turn to US supplies, they said, echoing comments made by US broker Benson Quinn Commodities last month.
"The only alternative is US soft red winter wheat," the type traded in Chicago, which is "less than £20 tonne above our Group 3 prices delivered into the northern mills", the traders said.
"Again, with its better quality it may already be a viable option and we have to remember that once the decision is taken, it turns up in cargoes of 25,000 or 50,000 tonnes."
‘High levels of disease’
The comments came as Defra, the UK farm ministry, in its first estimates for the 2012 harvests warned that "yields for all [major] crops have fallen between 2011 and 2012, with wheat and oilseed rape showing the greatest drops", after the wettest summer in a century.
In wheat, "yields have been affected by the poor weather, which led to high levels of disease during spring and summer along with low sunlight levels during the grainfill period".
The wheat yield of 6.7 tonnes per hectare was the "lowest it has been during the last 20 years", with the harvest pegged at 13.3m tonnes, a 13% decline year on year.
The production figure is in line with a 13.25m-tonne estimate last week from the National Farmers Union, with Strategie Grains on Friday putting the crop at 13.4m tonnes, and the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday putting the crop at 14.0m tonnes.
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:11 am
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SELL SIGNAL CONFIRMED
22 MAY 2012 BY LANCE ROBERTS
By Lance Roberts, CEO, StreetTalk Advisors
In this past weekend’s missive we stated that: “There is very little doubt that the confirming sell signal will occur by the end of this week, or, early next week at the latest. Enough deterioration has occurred within the market at this point that it is now just a function of time.” As of this morning the recent initial sell signalwas confirmed by a crossover in our longer term indicator as shown in the first chart.
Also, the expected oversold bounce is now officially engaged.This is NOT a buying opportunity — this rally should be used to sell and reduce exposure to portfolio equity risk. Our short term moving average has now turned down, and like last summer, will cross below our long term moving average by July. Last summer the market correction made a full 2-standard deviation correction (black box). In the current market environment a similar 2-standard deviation reversion would take the market to 1175ish today. However, I suspect that the lower band will be closer to 1200 by the time this correction cycle is complete.
The next chart details the correction process in a little more detail. Last summer after the “confirmed sell signal” was issued the market proceeded to reach “oversold conditions” in a brutal 6 week sell off. The current magnitude of the selloff has likewise gotten the markets to an oversold state which is why, like last summer, we expected a fairly strong countertrend bounce. Currently, using Fibonacci retracement analysis, we can find three potential areas that the bounce could obtain: 1337, 1351, and 1364.
It is important not to become hung up on exact numbers. These are general areas to begin reducing equity exposure during the rally. Begin reducing exposure to equities as the market approaches the first level and continue to do so as the market rally ensues.
As stated this past weekend the guidelines to implement in your portfolio, based on your current position, are as follows:
Situation A) I Am Overweight Equities
1. Reduce equity exposure on any rally to align with model.
2. Sell losers/laggards and rebalance winning positions back to original allocation weightings.
3. Hold cash raised from the liquidation until correction is complete.
4. Raise fixed income allocation to 35% of portfolio.
Situation B) I Am Underweight Equities
1. Keep equity exposure at current levels.
2. On a rally sell losers/laggards completely. Rebalance winning trades back to original allocation weightings.
3. Hold cash until correction is complete.
4. Adjust bonds to 35% of portfolio.
Situation B) I’m All Cash
1. When correction is complete, and the next buy signal is generated, align equity exposure with model.
2. Raise bonds to 35% of portfolio.
The currently rally can fizzle out at any moment. We are walking along a very thin tightrope with Europe with any misstep a potential to rout the financial markets. The easiest path currently for the market is down. Until that changes, which will be indicated by our current“sell” signal reversing, our job is to “sell rallies” and be patient.
Patience is the basis of successful long term investing because in order to be truly successful with your investments in the long term you must have a strong investment discipline to mitigate risks, rational expectations of performance and the patience to wait for the right opportunities to present themselves.
Finally, always remember Warren Buffet’s investment rules.
1) Never lose money
2) Refer to rule #1
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Mon May 21, 2012 10:33 pm
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JERUSALEM — Israeli archaeologists said on Sunday they had found a 2,000-year-old clay seal near Jerusalem’s Western Wall, confirming written accounts of ritual practices in the biblical Jewish Temple.
The button-shaped object bears the Aramaic words “pure for God,” suggesting it was used to certify food and animals used in sacrificial ceremonies.
The Western Wall is part of the compound revered by Jews as the Temple Mount, where Islam’s al-Aqsa mosque and Dome of the Rock shrine now stand in a holy complex Muslims call the Noble Sanctuary.
“It seems that the inscribed object was used to mark products or objects that were brought to the Temple, and it was imperative they be ritually pure,” the Israel Antiquities Authority said in a statement announcing the find.
The authority said it believed it was the first time such a seal had been excavated, providing direct archaeological evidence of ritual activity in the temple described in ancient texts.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/25 … gists-say/
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Sun Dec 25, 2011 11:57 am
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