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Agriculture • Drought, cold cripple U.S. winter wheat crop – Western Kansa
By Roxana Hegeman
11 May 2013
(AP) – The winter wheat crop is expected to be far smaller this season compared to last, particularly for hard red varieties used in bread, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday.
In the first government projection on the harvest’s anticipated size, the National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated winter wheat production will be down 10 percent to 1.49 billion bushels, due to fewer acres — 32.7 million acres, some 6 percent fewer acres than a year ago — and a 1.8-bushel decrease in average yields, to 45.4 bushels per acre.
The government’s forecast comes amid a season marked by drought and late spring freezes in the Midwest’s major wheat growing areas, particularly in Kansas — the nation’s biggest wheat-producing state. […]
Nationwide production of hard red winter wheat, typically used to make bread, is expected to decline 23 percent to 768 million bushels. But that’ll be offset somewhat by soft red winter wheat types — favored for cookies and pastries — which are projected to be up 19 percent at 501 million bushels.
One bushel of wheat yields about 42 pounds of flour — enough to make 73 loaves of bread.
Far western Kansas is considered a disaster area, and farmers told tour participants earlier this month that crop insurance agents have already begun writing off acres there. Wheat tour participants examined 570 fields, finding that in south-central Kansas, which got late winter snowstorms and heavy spring rains, the wheat looks good and production there is expected to offset a bit the losses elsewhere in the state. [more]
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/05 … wheat.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed May 15, 2013 1:45 pm
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Agriculture • Wheat prices dip after US foresees huge world crop
Wheat prices dip after US foresees huge world crop
Wheat prices extended losses after US farm officials lifted the bar on estimates for this year’s world harvest of the grain, and cautioned over heightened competition among exporters to secure orders.
The US Department of Agriculture, in its first forecasts for 2013-14 season, pegged the world wheat harvest at a record 701.10m tonnes, lifted by a sharp recovery in former Soviet Union harvest, and increases in Australia, Canada and the European Union too.
"Production is projected higher in all of the world’s major exporting countries," the USDA said in its benchmark Wasde report on world crop supply and demand.
Indeed, the Russian harvest was seen rebounding 49% from last year’s drought-affected levels to 56.0m tonnes, narrowly overtaking US production.
The world figure was above forecasts from other commentators, including a 695m-tonne forecast from the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization on Thursday, and a 680m-tonne estimate from the International Grains Council.
Export competition
With all major world wheat exporting enjoying strong harvests, the US itself faced a drop of nearly 10% in its own shipments, to 25.2m tonnes (925m bushels).
Wasde wheat estimates, change on last and (on market forecast)
2012-13 US carryout stocks: 731m bushels, unchanged, (-2m bushels)
2012-13 world carryout stocks: 180.17m tonnes, -2.089m tonnes, (-1.36m tonnes)
2013-14 US carryout stocks: 670m bushels, N/A, (+12,000 bushels)
2013-14 world carryout stocks: 186.38m tonnes, N/A, (+2.01m tonnes)
Sources: USDA, ThomsonReuters
"Large crops for major export competitors limit opportunities for US wheat," the USDA said.
The impact was exacerbated by strong crops in many importing nations, with Middle Eastern purchases, for instance, expected to drop more than 20%.
"Also affecting global trade prospects are year-to-year production increases for major importers, the Middle East and North Africa, where weather has been favourable for winter crops since seeding last fall," the USDA said.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wheat-pri … -5823.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Sun May 12, 2013 12:37 pm
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Agriculture • Payments by US Farm Safety Net Program: Differences by Crop
Payments by US Farm Safety Net Program: Differences by Crop
10 May 2013
US – An important aspect of the on-going debate over the new farm bill is the proposed elimination of direct payments. This proposal differentially impacts the program crops, prompting a debate among crops and geographical regions over the distribution of payments by farm safety net programs, writes Carl Zulauf and Gary Schnitkey.
The comparison begins with the 2003 crop year because the counter-cyclical program, an important price risk program, was initially enacted in the 2002 Farm Bill.
Distribution of Direct Payments among Crops
Direct payments ranged from 1.3 per cent and 2.0 per cent of crop sales for oats and soybeans, respectively, to 14.9 per cent and 16.2 per cent of sales for sorghum and rice, respectively (see Figure 1). Thus, the elimination of direct payments will have notably different impacts across the program crops. Figure 1 underscores that, while it is straightforward to note that society questions the appropriateness of making $5 billion in annual direct payments with near record crop income; it is less straightforward how to address the differential impact by crop of eliminating direct payments. Source of the data are the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Farm Service Agency (FSA). When interpreting this ratio, it is useful to keep in mind that sales are based on production and hence planted acres while direct payments are based on historical base acres.
Direct Payments vs. Net Crop Insurance Payments by Crop
Eliminating direct payments would make crop insurance the primary farm safety net program, culminating a 30-year trend toward an increasing role for crop insurance. Thus, it is important to compare the distribution of payments by these two programs by crop.
Figure 2 presents net crop insurance payments expressed as a percent of crop sales. Net crop insurance payment is calculated as crop insurance indemnity payments received by farms minus the premiums paid by farms. Figure 5 is also generated to facilitate comparison. It presents this difference: net crop insurance payments minus direct payments, both expressed as a percent of sales. Source of the data are USDA, Risk Management Agency (RMA). As can be seen, payments differ across crops, with a range of 8.4 per cent for cotton down to .7 per cent for rice.
The distribution of net crop insurance payments in Figure 2 differs from the distribution of direct payments in Figure 1. Net crop insurance payments and direct payments as a percent of crop sales are most similar for corn and soybeans, as well as oats. This similarity, together with the smaller size of direct payments relative to sales, is consistent with the generally=accepted observation that Midwest corn and soybeans are more willing to accept the shift to crop insurance than other crop-region combinations.
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Net crop insurance payments are only 0.7 per cent of rice crop sales while direct payments are 16.2 per cent of rice crop sales. The difference of -15.5 per cent is more than twice as large as the next biggest difference, -7.1 per cent for sorghum. Thus, Figure 5, together with the relatively large size of direct payments to rice (see Figure 1), illustrates why rice is so concerned with the shift from a direct payment to a crop insurance based farm safety net.
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http://www.thecropsite.com/news/13669/p … es-by-crop
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Sat May 11, 2013 11:27 am
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Agriculture • Cold leaves EU crop development one month behind
Cold leaves EU crop development one month behind
Europe’s cold start to spring, marked by one of the chilliest Marchs on record, has caused a "very strong delay" to the development of winter grains, of more than one month, besides slowing spring sowing, officials said.
However, the staff at the European Commission’s Mars agricultural meteorology division declined to cut yield forecasts, saying it was too early yet to assume below-average harvest results.
The Mars division said that cold March temperatures, up to 6 degrees Celsius below average in Germany and Poland, had so far cost some 100-150 growing degree days (GDD) – a measure of crop development conditions drawn from temperatures, and with some 1,600 needed for wheat to reach maturity.
"A significant delay in winter crop development and spring sowing was observed in most of Europe," the division said in a monthly report.
"In western Europe, the late and persistent cold spell of March led to a delayed growth for winter and spring crops by one month or more."
‘Significant delay’
Delays were particularly evident in the UK, the EU’s third-ranked wheat producing country, where "the cold month of March has generated little accumulated temperatures", although warmer conditions over the last 10 days or so have allowed crops to grow "at a rapid rate".
The poor prospects for the UK crop, potentially on course for a 30-year low, were behind a downgrade by analysis group Strategie Grains last week to its forecast for the EU wheat harvest.
However, the Mars unit also said that crop development was "clearly delayed" in Germany, the second-ranked wheat producer, and lagging by up to a month in parts of top-ranked France.
"Soft wheat and winter barley show a significant delay in their development, as a consequence of the cold temperatures registered in northern France," the briefing said.
‘Delay in spring sowing’
The report also highlighted the threat to crops in Poland, where cold had slowed development of winter crops "by more than 20 days", leaving them at risk of "reduced yields" from further delays.
"Furthermore, there is a delay in spring sowing," which "will shorten tillering and stem elongation stages", and potentially lower yield by reducing the number of kernels per stem.
"However, the proper choice of seed variety and an increased sowing density might compensate the late sowing from late spring sowings," Mars added.
Indeed, the unit proved reluctant overall to lower its yield forecasts, saying that while the prospect of crops realising their potential had been "somewhat compromised, it is still too early to revise forecasts.
"Weather conditions in the forthcoming weeks will be critical to evaluating more accurately yield potentials."
‘Move in the right direction’
In fact, the comments come amid an improvement in weather, with a warm-up in temperatures to around average levels in many areas.
"Europe continues to see an improvement on the weather front," Jaime Nolan Miralles at broker FCStone said, noting also data on Friday from FranceAgriMer showing that 69% of soft wheat had headed as of April 15, up 32 points week on week, if behind the 99% a year before.
For barley, the proportion headed rose by 39 points to 76%, compared with 100% usually by now.
"Still behind last year, but a move in the right direction," he said.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/cold-leav … -5752.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:18 am
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Agriculture • World wheat crop to rebound, but not set record
World wheat crop to rebound, but not set record
World wheat production will rise "significantly" in 2013-14, but will not set a new record, and prove insufficient to foster a recovery in inventories held by major exporters, the US Department of Agriculture said.
USDA officials, expanding on forecasts on Thursday of a 169m-bushel drop to 2.10bn bushels in domestic production in the forthcoming season, said that the decline would not be mirrored in rival exporting countries.
"World wheat production is expected to recover significantly from last year, with all major exporting countries except the US expected to have larger crops," the USDA said in a report to its annual Outlook conference.
The European Union and the major former Soviet Union producers, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine, would "account for the majority of the increase".
‘Stocks not expected to expand’
Nonetheless, the world harvest will fall short of the record 696.6m tonnes set in 2011-12, the report said, while failing to put a number on its estimate.
Nor will the harvests prove sufficient to rebuild inventories held by major exporters, which are poised to end this season at their tightest in four years, and are seen as a particularly important pricing signal.
While stocks countries such as China are believed to hold large wheat inventories, they are not available to the market, limiting their impact on prices.
"Despite near-record production projections, exporter ending stocks are not expected to expand as strong global demand and supply are projected to nearly balance," the briefing said.
‘Limited scope for stock rebuilding’
The estimates follow a forecast from the International Grains Council that world wheat production will increase to 682m tonnes in 2013-14, but without making a big impact on rebuilding inventories.
"While only a small increase in global consumption is forecast, much of the rise in supply is absorbed, leaving limited scope for stock rebuilding," the IGC said.
The USDA underlined that its estimates showed that domestic stocks "remains far from tight", expected to end 2013-14 at 28.0%.
Its estimates of a drop in the domestic harvest assume a loss of 17% of sown wheat, "due to the continuation of drought this past fall and winter in the hard red winter wheat area".
The average rate of loss of 13%.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/world-whe … -5552.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:41 am
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Agriculture • US officials restate warning over China wheat crop
US officials restate warning over China wheat crop
US foreign staff have, again, challenged official estimates of a bumper Chinese wheat harvest last year, citing disease damage, and cautioned that ideas of the corn crop may be too high too.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Beijing bureau restated an estimate made in November that China’s wheat harvest fell by more than 9m tonnes last year, to 108.0m tonnes, "due to head blight", or fusarium, outbreaks in major growing provinces such as Anhui, Henan and Hubei.
The estimate is more than 12m tonnes below the USDA’s official estimate, which is in turn in line with the figure from China’s own National Bureau of Statistics of 120.58m tonnes.
And the bureau cited as evidence of the squeeze on wheat supplies a rise in prices of some 9% rise to 2,360 remninbi a tonne in Chinese wheat prices between August and January, quoting data from analysis group JCI.
"This is a strong indication that wheat production and total available supplies are lower than Chinese official production estimates," the bureau said in a report.
Chicago wheat prices fell by more than 10% over the same period.
‘High levels of vomitoxin’
Some commentators have noted, in defending ideas of a higher wheat crop, the relatively low rate of Chinese imports, which the USDA bureau acknowledged could fall nearly 15%, to 2.0m tonnes, in 2012-13.
However, the report also flagged the impact of sales from state wheat reserves in cushioning the impact of last year’s poor harvest, especially on quality shortfalls given that these sales are largely of crop from previous years rather than 2012 crop of which "some still may be infect with head blight".
Indeed, the "possibility of high levels" of vomitoxin – a toxic residue from fusarium infections – in last year’s crop has prompted Chinese officials to order state grain companies "to strictly follow domestic safety standards while purchasing wheat".
The impact of last year’s poor crop may not be felt until further ahead, if the 2013 harvest also disappoints, forcing Chinese authorities to turn to turn to stored 2012 crop, with its vomitoxin risk.
"If 2013-14 production is less than expected or suffers from a similar disease outbreak, depending on how much of the 2012-13 wheat crop may be infected with head blight and comprise current reserve levels, there is a possibility that China may need to further increase imports in order to meet domestic demand."
‘Pests, typhoon and drought’
The data dispute is the latest in a series of wranglings over the accuracy of Chinese harvest statistics, which critics claim tend to offer inflated estimates thanks to a subsidy programme which rewards regional authorities by output, so encouraging over-reporting.
Typically, the spotlight has fallen on discrepancies in corn – in which China’s balance sheet is particularly important to markets given the country’s likely move from being self-sufficient to a perennial importer, and in quantity.
USDA estimates on Monday forecast Chinese corn imports growing from 2.0m tonnes this season to 19.5m tonnes in a decade’s time, overtaking the likes of Japan and Mexico to become the world;s top buyer.
The bureau estimated last year’s Chinese corn crop at 200m tonnes, up 4.2% year on year, but 8m tonnes below the official USDA number.
"According to agricultural sources, yields in some areas were affected by factors such as army worm outbreaks, a typhoon and drought," the report said.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-offici … -5508.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:22 pm
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Agriculture • Bad weather hits soy crop in Brazil stronghold too
Bad weather hits soy crop in Brazil stronghold too
The deterioration in South America’s weather, which has already sparked downgrades to hopes for Argentina’s soybean crop, is beginning to raise doubts of Brazil’s too, dashing expectations of bumper yields.
The wet weather in central Brazil, including in Mato Grosso, has until to now been seen as an impediment to harvest progress and logistics, but a support to yields.
Indeed, upgrades to estimates for Brazil’s 202-13 soybean crop have to some extent balanced downgrades to thinking on Argentina’s, which is being sapped by hot and dry weather.
Informa on Friday raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean harvest by 1.1m tonnes, to 84.0m tonnes, but cuts its forecast for Argentina’s by 3.9m tonnes to 54.5m tonnes.
‘Small, shrivelled seed’
However, on Monday, Brazil-based AgRural called time on rising hopes for Brazilian soybeans, lowering its estimate for the crop by 1.0m tonnes to 81.2m tonnes, warning that the heavy rains had begun to hurt yields too.
"Due to humidity, the quality of the beans harvested up until now has been below expectations," the consultancy said.
The comments were echoed by Michael Cordonnier, the influential crop scout, who warned of "more and more reports of poor seed quality" from the early harvest.
"We are talking about small, shrivelled seed, some is mouldy, with light weight, on which farmers are being forced to take discounts" to sell, Dr Cordonnier said.
"In few cases, seed has sprouted in the pod. When that happens the field is toast, and you might as well plough it in."
Three-pronged strategy
The results bore out a strategy among Brazilian farmers of splitting soybean sowings equally between early, medium and late maturing varieties.
"You not want all your soybeans maturing in mid-January because that is the height of the rainy season, and it might be two or three weeks before you can get the crop harvested," Dr Cordonnier said.
"They were talking about a super-record harvest in Mato Grosso. Now they just hope the weather dries up so they can get an average yield."
Meanwhile, further south, in Rio Grande do Sul, where dryness has tested crops, weekend rains had disappointed.
‘It has been hot, dry’
Dr Cordonnier said he was sticking by a forecast of 81m tonnes for Brazil’s soybean crop, which would still be a record.
"I had been considering raising my forecast. But I’m glad I didn’t," he said.
However, he did lower by 1m tonnes to 51m tonnes his forecast for Argentina’s soybean crop.
The US Department of Agriculture, whose data set global benchmarks, pegs the harvest at 54m tonnes.
However, a report from its Buenos Aires bureau overnight estimated the crop at 53m tonnes, warning that "since mid-December, it has been hot, dry, and there hasn’t been significant rainfall in much of the major production area".
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/bad-weath … -5476.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:04 pm
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Agriculture • Facing drought, U.S. farmers return to crop rotation
Facing drought, U.S. farmers return to crop rotation
Tom Polansek, Reuters | Updated: 01/18/2013
Farmers in top U.S. grain states are planning to rotate to other crops after repeated plantings of corn on the same fields, combined with a devastating drought in 2012, badly hurt yields.
Farmers in Iowa and Illinois, which accounted for almost 30 percent of U.S. corn production in 2012, are expected to shift some acreage that was seeded exclusively with corn over the past several years to soybeans this spring. They want to avoid another year of potentially significant losses as dry conditions persist, said agricultural market analysts and economists.
A move away from corn in those states may further drive up world food prices, which are already historically high, because corn stockpiles in the United States, the world’s top exporter, are forecast to hit a 17-year low by the end of the summer.
Soaring corn prices, due in part to surging demand for ethanol, in recent years have encouraged a greater amount of corn being planted on the same land year-after-year despite the fact the practice depletes soil of nutrients and reduces yields.
Although corn plantings are expected to be near record highs nationwide in 2013, the loss of some acres in the most productive states could crimp U.S. yields.
Corn acres will shift from Iowa and Illinois to less-productive fields in North and South Dakota and the Mississippi Delta, raising the potential for lower yields overall, said Sterling Liddell, vice president of food and agribusiness research for agribusiness lending giant Rabobank.
The shift "could potentially be very supportive for prices because we’re in such tight stock conditions with such little room for error," he said.
Iowa and Illinois could each see up to one million acres that have been devoted to corn production for the past several years switched to other crops in 2013, according to Rabobank.
That could mean a loss of up to 320 million bushels of corn from the 2013 harvest, based on the states’ five-year average yields.
Farmers planted 14.2 million acres of corn in Iowa last year and 12.8 million acres in Illinois.
MISSING MOISTURE
The United States harvested 10.8 billion bushels of corn in 2012, the smallest in six years. The U.S. government is expected to detail its forecast for the 2013 harvest and plantings in March.
Ongoing dryness and the need to reinvigorate soils will encourage farmers to retreat, at least temporarily, from corn-on-corn production, according to agronomists. Soybeans naturally add nitrogen, a key fertilizer, to the land.
More so than soybeans, corn has a greater need for moisture during a critical summertime stage of development, raising the risk for yield losses if moisture is absent during that time.
Rains in August boosted the size of last year’s soybean crop but arrived too late in the summer to benefit the already-ravaged corn crop.
Forecasters have warned the drought will not abate in the coming months.
"Farmers are going to do their best to not do corn-on-corn any more than they have to," said Rich Guebert, vice president of the Illinois Farm Bureau, who said he had heard many farmers complain about dramatic yield losses from corn planted after corn.
Rodney Weinzierl, the executive director of the Illinois Corn Growers Association and a farmer in the state’s No. 1 corn-producing county, plans to plant soybeans on land on which he has grown corn for the past three years.
The decision to reduce corn plantings "has a lot to do with moisture," said Weinzierl, adding that he was "trying to better understand" a 40 percent decline in yields last year for corn plantings in fields that also had corn in the previous year.
DROUGHT BURNS FARMERS
There has been a movement toward repeated plantings of corn in recent years. Acres planted with corn last year and the year before in Iowa and Illinois rose 6 percent to 9.8 million acres, according to agricultural data company Lanworth, a unit of Thomson Reuters.
Total corn plantings in the two states jumped 1 percent to 27 million acres.
"What people were banking on was that corn prices had gotten up there high enough that it was going to offset that yield reduction, but in fact it didn’t," said Mike Duffy, agricultural economist at Iowa State University.
It can all make a big difference to farmers’ incomes.
Duffy estimated an average yield of 165 bushels per acre for corn grown after corn in 2012 and 180 bushels for corn grown after soybeans.
In 2012, it cost $4.94 a bushel to produce corn grown after corn in Iowa, 70 cents more than it cost to grow corn grown after soybeans. The higher cost was due to reduced yields for repeated plantings and to the additional fertilizer needed to compensate for lost nutrients, Duffy said.
Yields for corn grown after corn take a particularly hard hit compared to corn grown after soybeans when weather conditions are poor, Duffy noted, adding that farmers who planted corn repeatedly on the same land said: "Well we got burned here. We don’t want to do it again."
RECORD PLANTINGS NATIONWIDE?
Still, all signs point to U.S. farmers planting a historically large number of acres to corn in 2013 due to high corn prices.
Monsanto, the world’s largest seed company, last week projected 96 million acres of corn will be planted, down 1 percent from a record high in 2012.
Rabobank predicted total plantings will rise 0.5 percent to 97.6 million acres – which would be the most since 101.95 million acres were planted in 1936 before the advent of soybeans.
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-new … 07121.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:54 am
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Agriculture • Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Receives Disaster Declaration
Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Receives Disaster Declaration
11 January 2013
US – Wheat growers in the Southern Plains have know the effects of a drought for about 120 consecutive weeks, and now their neighbors to the north have been added to the drought disaster list, writes Stu Ellis for farmgateblog.com.
Nearly 600 US counties—20 per cent of them—have been declared disaster areas in the first such USDA designation in 2013. Drought and heat, an environment unsatisfactory for the development of the hard red winter wheat crop, have seriously threatened the vitality of the crop.
While disaster declarations were weekly events in 2012, adding dozens of counties at a time to a growing list that included 2,245 by year’s end, the initial declaration came quickly in 2013. And it is all because of the US wheat crop that began its life in the worst condition since USDA began reporting wheat condition and crop progress. USDA officially identified 597 counties as primary disaster areas and made farmers eligible for low interest loans. USDA said, “The 597 counties have shown a drought intensity value of at least D2 (Drought Severe) for eight consecutive weeks based on US Drought Monitor measurements, providing for an automatic designation.”
http://www.thecropsite.com/news/12811/h … eclaration
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:57 pm
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Agriculture • US 2012 calf crop smaller for 17th consecutive year
Cattle Outlook: US 2012 calf crop smaller for 17th consecutive year
University of Missouri Extension | Updated: 12/07/2012
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Through November 24, 2012 steer slaughter was down 2.4% and heifer slaughter was down 5.4% compared to the same weeks last year. Beef cow slaughter was down 12.7%, but dairy cow slaughter was up 6.2%. Year-over-year, combined cow slaughter was down 4.5%. The sharp drop in beef cow slaughter and the drop in heifer slaughter relative to steer slaughter are strong indications that America’s cow-calf operations are moving toward herd expansion. This year’s calf crop is smaller than the year before for the 17th consecutive year.
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-new … 84001.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Tue Jan 01, 2013 4:23 pm
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