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Agriculture • Australia slashes hopes for drought-hit sorghum
Australia slashes hopes for drought-hit sorghum
Australia’s floods, while causing an estimated $2.5bn in losses, may not have damaged agricultural prospects that much, but the drought which preceded it did, officials said, slashing by 28% their forecast for the sorghum harvest.
The flooding caused last month by the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Oswald left "limited areas affected by floodwaters for up to a week, and in these regions some damage to summer crops was caused by floodwater inundation", Abares, Australia’s official crop bureau, said.
But overall, the flooding "has so far caused only minor damage to summer crops", said Paul Morris, the Abares executive director.
Indeed, the heavy rains – which insurer AON Benfield estimated caused $2.5bn losses in Queensland, the main area affected – improved sowing conditions for late-planted summer crops, such as sunflowers.
‘Heatwave conditions’
However, the drought, and record temperatures seen until mid-January, did damage harvest prospects for earlier-seeded crops, by causing "widespread deficiencies" in soil moisture.
"The 2012–13 summer crop season has been unfavourable to date for most crops with heatwave conditions in early to mid-January and, until recently, generally very-much-below-average rainfall across the major summer cropping regions," Abares said.
The dryness had hurt in particular prospects for sorghum, in which the bureau ditched expectations of a rise in output this year – forecasting instead a 23% decline, to 1.71m tonnes.
"The drier and warmer conditions in late spring and early summer have resulted in many producers not fully realising their planting intentions for grain sorghum, and reduced yield prospects," Mr Morris said.
Grains upgrades
The dry weather came too late, however, to cause damage to the important winter crops, including wheat, for which Abares nudged its 2012-13 harvest estimate 42,000 tonnes higher to 22.04m tonnes.
Abares left at 20.9m tonnes its forecast for Australian wheat exports during the marketing year.
The estimate of the barley harvest was upgraded by 196,000 tonnes to 7.06m tonnes, and for canola production by 453,000 tonnes to 3.09m tonnes.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/australia … -5506.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:23 pm
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Agriculture • Corn, wheat prices jump after US cuts supply hopes
Corn, wheat prices jump after US cuts supply hopes
Wheat futures set course for their strongest performance since November, with corn values higher too, after a slew of long-waited US data cut hopes for domestic supplies of both crops.
Wheat futures initially soared nearly 4% in Chicago after the US Department of Agriculture cut its estimate for domestic inventories at the close of 2012-13 by 38m bushels, to 716m bushels, a bigger drop than investors had expected.
And the data cast doubt on ideas of a bumper crop in 2013 too, in dashing forecasts of a jump in US winter wheat seedings.
The USDA pegged winter wheat seedings at 41.8m acres, 867,000 acres fewer than investors had expected.
Corn revisions
For corn, the USDA revealed that domestic inventories at the start of last month were, at 8.03bn bushels, down 17% year on year and some 180m bushels fewer than investors had banked on.
The figure followed growing speculation this week that US livestock feeding with the grain had been stronger than previously appreciated in the latter months of last year, and indeed the USDA raised by 300m bushels its estimate for feed use over 2012-13.
The revision was not reflected fully in the much-watched USDA estimates for US corn inventories at the close of 2012-13, in September, with export hopes slashed following a weak start to the season.
"Corn exports are projected 200m bushels lower, reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date, and increased pressure from larger supplies and exports from South America," the USDA said.
Nonetheless, the estimate for stocks at the close of the season was cut by 45m bushels to 602m bushels – contrasting with market expectations of an increase in the inventory estimate.
‘Strong and volatile prices’
Corn prices also gained more than 3%, with the USDA supporting ideas that the supply squeeze meant no imminent end to the period of elevated prices.
"While stiff competition has limited US corn exports, higher domestic disappearance leaves the balance sheet historically tight and is expected to support continued strong and volatile prices well into summer, particularly in the domestic cash markets," the USDA said.
"Higher expected feed and residual use [of corn] more than offsets reduced prospects for exports."
Chicago corn for March stood 3.2% higher at $7.21 ¼ a bushel, potentially on course for its biggest one-day rise since October.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/corn-whea … -5396.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Fri Jan 11, 2013 1:54 pm
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Agriculture • Weather woes hit hopes for huge SA corn, soy crops
Weather woes hit hopes for huge SA corn, soy crops
Hopes for big South American crops buyers are relying on to fill supply gaps left by drought-hit US harvests took a knock with the first talk that a difficult sowing season had curtailed yield harvest.
The run of upgrades to Brazil’s soybean crop went into reverse as Michael Cordonnier, the respected crop scout, trimmed his forecast to 80m tonnes, from 81m-83m tonnes, albeit still a record high.
He warned that a downgrade was on the way to his forecast for Argentine corn too, following persistent rains which have left "fields two-feet deep in water as far as the eye can see".
And, separately, Oil World cautioned that "there is now a higher risk that initial estimates of a sharp increase in [South American] soybean production… will not fully materialise".
The analysis group has pegged the continent’s 2012-13 soybean output at 153.5m tonnes, a rise of 36m tonnes year on year.
‘Very troublesome’
The downgrades follow a further period of weather extremes, following last season’s drought, which has landed much of Argentina and southern Brazil with excessive rain, while leaving many central and northern parts of Brazil with too little moisture.
"Excessive rainfall has reportedly been received on roughly 50% of the total Argentine oilseed and grain area," Oil World said.
Dr Cordonnier, noting that Argentine corn sowings were 38% complete, some 20 points behind last year, said that "planting is very troublesome", adding that the slow rate of seedins was "becoming a big issue".
"Argentina is not going to get a lot of corn planted any time soon,"
While this could boost production of soybeans, as farmers switch to a crop which can be later planted, it was not clear that farmers "will not have problems planting soybeans as well", he told Agrimoney.com.
‘Very hot and very dry’
In Brazil, soybean sowings were also running behind, by as much as 20 points in Goias, where weather has been "very hot and very dry", with temperatures reaching 103 degrees Fahrenheit, Dr Cordonnier, at Soybean and Corn Advisor, said.
Oil World said that Brazil’s soybean sowings were lagging by 1.3m-1.5m hectares, as of October 19, adding that it was likely that "in the first or second week of November there will be headlines circulating in newswires about alarming soybean planting delays of around 3m hectares behind last year’s pace in Argentina and Brazil combined".
The problem for the central and northerly regions was that in some areas, such as the western part of top soybean-growing state Mato Grosso, the first rains arrived on schedule last month, prompting farmers to make a start on sowings.
"But they never got the second rains" needed to support the crop, Dr Cordonnier said.
Germination rates were, at 25-35%, poor, meaning many farmers were "waiting for rain, and will then replant".
‘Spotty start’
Rains are in fact forecast for the next two days, which could have a significant influence.
"it’s time to get the stuff in the ground. It has been a spotty start to the growing season."
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/weather-w … -5158.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:49 am
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Agriculture • Weather woes dim hopes for Argentine, Aussie wheat
Weather woes dim hopes for Argentine, Aussie wheat
Hopes for southern hemisphere wheat output took a knock when Rabobank, citing dryness, lowered the bar on estimates for Australia’s harvest, while crops in parts of Argentina were lost to floods.
Rabobank downgraded by 1.7m tonnes to 22.8m tonnes its forecast for Australian wheat output, signalling a decline of 20% from last season’s record harvest.
The estimate was also below a market consensus figure of 23.2m tonnes, as reported by Bloomberg, and estimates from Abares, the Australian commodities bureau, of a 24.1m-tonne crop, and a US Department of Agriculture forecast of 26.0m tonnes.
And it comes amid an increased world focus on southern hemisphere harvests, as a potential source of grain to replace that lost in the northern hemisphere to droughts in the former Soviet Union.
"The trade will be increasingly sensitive to September rainfall prospects across Australia," Richard Feltes at US broker RJ O’Brien warned.
In the UK, grain merchant Frontier said: "To get anywhere near the USDA estimate of 26m tonnes, rain is needed soon. Can this key wheat exporter really escape the weather issues that have plagued every other world producer?"
‘Total or partial loss’
Rabobank’s downgrade came hours after the Buenos Aires grain exchange said that rains which were initially viewed as increasing wheat output prospects in Argnentina – the southern hemisphere’s other major wheat exporter – had proved too much for some crops.
"Rains recorded in the last few days have exacerbated the excess of water in extensive areas" of Buenos Aires province, which accounts for nearly half national wheat production, the exchange said.
While saying it was too early to estimate total damage, "large parts of the west of Buenos Aires reported total or partial loss of crops due to soil saturation".
Hopes for Argentine wheat have already been dented by a drop of more than 20% in sowings to historically low levels, as farmers switch to other crops, notably barley, in which laxer export restrictions have offered greater hope for tapping elevated global prices.
‘Deterioration continues’
Rabobank said its downgrade reflected lower hopes for output in Western Australia, the country’s top grains-producing state, where crop "deterioration continues" thanks to dry weather.
Parts of Western Australia received record low rains in July, "putting significant stress on crops throughout the state".
Graydon Chong, senior grains and oilseeds analyst at the bank, said that a field trip to Western Australia has revealed "short and inconsistent" wheat, leading him to expect "some abandonment" of crops, and lower yields of what was harvested.
Over Australia as a whole, with the prospect of an El Nino weather event, "the 2012 winter crop harvest may be the first normal-to-dry harvest in three seasons", he said.
Export prospects
However, the silver lining to drier weather would be higher wheat protein levels, which would boost further price prospects already supported by the poor former Soviet Union harvest, and a disease-hit Chinese crop Rabobank pegged at 105m tonnes – 13m tonnes below the USDA forecast.
Indeed, prospects looked bright for Australian wheat exports despite the expected drop in production, with "upside potential for high protein Australian wheat" shipments, and "high demand" for feed supplies, given the expense of alternative grains.
"China is expected to demand up to 4m tonnes of feed wheat this season, with the majority of anticipated to come from Australia," Mr Chong said.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/weather-w … -4959.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:55 am
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Agriculture • German, UK fears stymie revival in EU wheat hopes
German, UK fears stymie revival in EU wheat hopes
The revival in hopes for the European Union wheat harvest went into reverse as German farmers raised doubts over forecasts of increased production, and the UK crop was identified as ripe for downgrades.
Deutscher Bauernverband (DBV), the German farmers’ association, pegged the domestic wheat harvest at 21.9m tonnes, well below last year’s 22.7m-tonne harvest, which many analysts have forecast will be exceeded this year.
Strategie Grains, the influential analysis group, last week lifted its forecast for the German wheat crop, the European Union’s second biggest, to 23.4m tonnes, as it raised its estimate for the bloc’s total harvest, including durum, by 1.9m tonnes to 133.3m tonnes.
The DBV downgrade reflected localised cases of "massive winterkill" in a February cold snap which had prompted large-scale resowings of wheat fields typically with other crops. Spring wheat area expanded by some 50%, but to a relatively small 153,000 hectares.
‘UK downgrades ahead’
The data followed a caution from broker FCStone over the damage to wheat prospects in the UK, the EU’s third-ranked producer, thanks to persistent rains which have cut hopes for a rise in sowings being reflected in extra production.
"Results coming from the field in the UK continue to foster a large degree of variability, with test weights and falling numbers falling and premiums for quality receiving plenty of support," the broker said.
"At least 1m tonnes will be shaved from UK wheat output estimates, taking it down to the mid-to-low 14m-tonnes range," compared with 15.3m tonnes last year.
With prospects for quantity, as well as quality, UK wheat users have been importing from continental European countries such as Denmark, as well as Germany, an important source of harder milling varieties, Agrimoney.com has been told.
Quality factor
Indeed, Deutscher Bauernverband acknowledged the support to crop quality from an improvement in weather towards the end of the growing season.
UK wheat production and (plantings)
2012-13: "mid-to-low 14m tonnes", (2.01m hectares)
2011-12: 15.26m tonnes, (1.97m hectares)
2010-11: 14.88m tonnes, (1.94m hectares)
2009-10: 14.08m tonnes, (1.78m hectares)
2008-09: 17.23m tonnes, (2.08m hectares)
Sources: Agrimoney.com, Defra, HGCA
With recent weather "mostly good, winter wheat could be harvested often with satisfactory moisture content", reducing the need for drying and protecting protein levels in many key growing areas.
At FCStone, Jaime Nolan Miralles said: "The big issue was about quality more than quantity," given earlier fears that the French crop, the EU’s biggest, and largely of soft milling varieties, had suffered significant weather damage too.
"On that score, we got out of jail with France to a large extent," given a late turn drier in the weather. "It looks like something similar happened in Germany too."
Malting barley
The DBV was more upbeat over Germany’s barley production, pegging it at 9.8m tonnes, a rise of 12% year on year, with hopes of substantial amounts of spring crop making malting grade.
Spring barley was of "generally good quality", and largely of lower protein levels, below 11.5%, demanded by brewers.
With France too appearing to have harvested a good-quality spring barley crop, prospects appear good for malting barley supplies outside the UK, where Scotch whisky distillers may be forced to look outside Scotland for supplies.
For rapeseed, the association foresaw a recovery in production to 4.4m tonnes, thanks to a recovery to 3.4 tonnes per hectare in the average yield.
Contract high
On the London futures market, feed wheat for November delivery rose 1.0% to a fresh contract high of £208.60 a tonne as 15:15 UK time (09:15 Chicago time), contrasting with falls in the grain on other markets.
London prices are being given an extra boost by the prospect of the Ensus bioethanol plant in northern England reopening, with capacity for more than 1m tonnes of wheat a year, with the Vivergo plant, of similar size, set for launch in the fourth quarter.
In Paris, soft milling wheat was 0.1% lower at E267.50 a tonne, while Chicago’s December lot was 0.5% lower at $9.17 ½ a bushel.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/german-uk … -4902.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed Aug 22, 2012 3:21 pm
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Agriculture • Corn prices hit record after US cuts harvest hopes
Corn prices hit record after US cuts harvest hopes
Farm officials cut their forecasts for the US corn and soybean crops even further than investors had expected to account for damage from drought, lowering their estimates for the corn yield to a 17-year low.
Corn prices soared to a record high.
The US Department of Agriculture cut its estimates for the domestic corn yield from 146.0 bushels per acre to 123.4 bushels per acre, which would be the worst result since 1995.
The estimate for acres abandoned because of the worst drought in more than 50 years, capped by the hottest July on record, was raised by 1.5m acres to 9.0m acres, to leave production at a little under 10.8bn bushels.
This figure represented a 2.2bn-bushel downgrade from the USDA’s July estimate, and was lower than the market had expected.
Soybean downgrade
For soybeans, the yield estimate was cut to 36.1 bushels per acre from 40.5 bushels per acre.
With the forecast for sowings making it to harvest also reduced, production was pegged at 2.69bn bushels, 350m bushels lower than previously expected.
The downgrade was also bigger than forecast by investors.
More soon
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/corn-pric … -4852.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Fri Aug 10, 2012 6:54 am
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Agriculture • Quality fears cloud upgrade to French wheat hopes
Quality fears cloud upgrade to French wheat hopes
Fears for quality took some of the shine off an estimate by FranceAgriMer that the French wheat crop will come in well above previous expectations, and up 1.9m tonnes year on year.
The French farm bureau, in its first official forecast for the crop, pegged it at 35.9m tonnes, above a preliminary estimate of 34.4m tonnes besides projections from other commentators.
Strategie Grains estimates the crop at 35.1m tonnes, industry group Coceral 35.2m tonnes and the AGPB growers group at 33.9m tonnes.
The FranceAgriMer estimate, adding in a durum crop pegged at 2.1m tonnes, is also 1.0m tonnes above the US Department of Agriculture latest forecast for the total French wheat harvest, the European Union’s biggest.
‘People are getting concerned’
The upgrade reflects the impact of rains in refreshing crops threatened by dryness earlier in the year, following an earlier setback to winterkill during a February cold snap.
However, in some areas the extent of the rains, so close to harvest, has raised concerns that a crop, while better on quantity than initially feared, may fall short on quality in a country which is a major supplier of softer milling wheat.
"It is nowhere near panic stations, but people are getting concerned," Jaime Nolan Miralles, commodity risk manager at FCStone’s European operations, told Agrimoney.com.
"We will have to see how the harvest goes when it reaches the north," and French regions such as Lorraine and Normandy where concerns are particularly high.
Price impact
With Spain, a major grain importer, set for a small, drought-hit harvest, the fears were beginning to feed through into prices, Mr Nolan Miralles added.
In Germany, milling wheat premiums this week reached E13 a tonne, up from E8 a tonne a week before.
Paris milling wheat futures for November delivery have risen by some 16.5% over the last month, compared with 14.2% rise, in euro terms, in London feed wheat for November.
Fungal residues
In the cash market in the UK, where rains are also proving heavy and persistent, milling wheat premiums in the north west of England have risen some £7-8 a tonne to about £40 a tonne since mid-June, Jonathan Lane, trading manager at merchant Gleadell, said.
"Historically, a premium of about £40-45 a tonne I have always seen as a sell. But today would I sell? I’m not so sure," given the quality concerns.
While it was still too early to call damage to wheat quality being compromised on some criteria, such as the hagberg falling number, more rain could mean diseases "starting to be an issue", and the risk of elevated levels of toxic fungal residues.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/quality-f … -4728.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Fri Jul 06, 2012 7:44 am
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Agriculture • Re: Hopes fade for Russia, Ukraine grain harvests
Early grains harvesting is underway in southern Russia, with wheat yields reported to be around 30-40% lower than last year, although quality is good.
http://nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.ca/
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:05 pm
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Agriculture • Hopes fade for Russia, Ukraine grain harvests
Officials underlined fears for dryness-tested grain harvests in both the Black Sea’s main producing states, and added Ukrainian corn to the list of crops on the watch list, fuelling a jump in prices.
Wheat prices soared 6% in Chicago, while hitting their highest in a year for the best-traded November contracts in London and Paris, which chalked up their highest-ever trading volumes too, of 1,270 lots and 48,200 lots respectively.
Russia’s grain ministry, in a long-awaited move, slashed to 85m tonnes its forecast for the domestic grains harvest, down from a previous estimate of a crop in line with the last year’s 94m tonnes.
The estimate for the wheat crop was cut to 46m-49m tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 57m tonnes, and last year’s 56.2m tonnes.
The US Department of Agriculture, whose data set global benchmarks, has forecast the crop at 53.0m tonnes.
‘Pretty hot’
The downgrade followed reports of a disappointing start to harvesting, and more of the dryness in Russia and parts of neighbouring Ukraine which has stressed crops.
Grains harvests in both countries are being brought forward to prevent yield loss to early-shed kernels – as in the drought year of 2010 – although Russia’s crop, at least, is still expected to come in ahead of that two years’ ago.
Over the weekend, "the Ukraine and south west Russia was pretty hot with readings over the southern half of Ukraine and all the Southern district [of Russia] at 32-35 degrees Celsius (90-95 degrees Fahrenheit", WxRisk.com said.
Corn threat
In Ukraine, grain experts at the official Hydrometeorological Centre on Monday lowered the bar for forecasts for the domestic harvest to 43m-44m tonnes, down from 56.7m tonnes a year ago.
Crop prices as of 18:00 UK time (12:00 Chicago time)
Chicago corn (December contract):$5.94 a bushel, +7.2%
Chicago wheat, (September): $7.29 ¼ a bushel, +6.1%
Chicago soybeans, (November): $14.18 ¼ a bushel, +3.1%
Paris wheat, (November): E225.00 a tonne, +3.9%
London wheat, (November): £168.00 a tonne, (+4.0%)
UkrAgroConsult, the crop consultant, two weeks ago trimmed its estimate by 800,000 tonnes to 45.5m tonnes, while the USDA foresees the crop, in terms of the total harvest of coarse grains and wheat, at 45.8m tonnes.
The Hydrometeorological Centre warned that its crop forecast could yet prove optimistic if dryness emerges to as a threat for corn, which is spring sown, and in which the country currently appears on track for a record 26m-27m-tonne harvest.
"At the present moment, the situation with corn is satisfactory. But it could grow much worse without significant rain in the next one or two weeks," the centre’s agriculture head, Tetyana Adamenko, said.
Export supplies
The downgrades were viewed by Barclays Capital analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan as "interesting, as the [global] wheat market has been viewed as oversupplied", although estimates for inventories have been falling in recent months.
Grain prices soared on both the US and European markets, boosted too by fears for dry weather on prospects for the US corn harvest.
Black Sea wheat supplies are particularly closely watched because of their importance for world values, with the region seen as a price leader on exports.
However, Russian agriculture minister Nikolai Fyodorov downplayed fears that the country would, as in 2010-11, and were threatened in 2011-12 too, introduce grain export restrictions.
"We see no reason to scare anyone with talk of an export ban or others levers or tools", he said, according to the Interfax news agency.
Mr Fyodorov estimated Russia’s grain export potential at "not lower than" 20m tonnes.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/hopes-fad … -4680.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Mon Jun 25, 2012 11:52 am
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Agriculture • Dryness threatens upbeat hopes for Aussie canola
Dryness threatens upbeat hopes for Aussie canola
Dry weather may mean Australia’s canola harvest falls well short of estimates of up to a record 4m tonnes, dealing a further blow to hopes for world supplies of the oilseed.
The Australian Oilseeds Federation, while concurring with forecasts from other analysts of a rise in Australian sowings of the rapeseed variant this year, warned that "dry conditions experienced in much of the eastern states" was "threatening the establishment of crops".
The decline in rainfall, which follows a warning of the impact of dryness on Western Australia, meant the harvest would come in at 2.97m tonnes, the federation said, in its first estimate for the crop.
Besides implying a 6.9% decline year on year, the forecast is significantly more gloomy than estimates from other analysts.
‘Yield volatility is high’
The US Department of Agriculture on Friday forecast Australia’s canola output in 2012-13 at a record 3.25m tonnes, while Commonwealth Bank of Australia has pegged the harvest at 3.2m tonnes.
Earlier this week, Rabobank, taking a more sanguine view of the weather, said that "at the high end of expectations, Australia could reach a 4m-tonne crop, double the size of the harvest only three years ago".
"Yield volatility is high in Australia due to weather," the bank said.
"Yet given the strong profit incentives and benign weather to date, we do not see significant downside risk to production."
‘Patchy emergence’
The Australian Oilseeds Federation said its more downbeat view was based on observations of "deficient rainfall" in New South Wales, the second-biggest canola growing state, where the upper soil profile has been left dry.
"Crops planted into drying soil have led to patchy emergence."
"The situation in Victoria is similar to that of New South Wales," the group said, adding that in parts of South Australia, crops are "in need of rain to either trigger germination or ensure effective establishment."
Conditions in Western Australia were "more typical" of average, thanks to rains in the Esperance area in March, the federation said, contrasting with comments from state farm officials earlier this month.
EU needs
The prospect for Australia’s harvest is viewed has having a significant influence on the world market, given the prospect of another disappointing harvest in the European Union, the top rapeseed producer and consumer, boosting its reliance on imports.
Oil World on Tuesday trimmed its estimate for the EU rapeseed harvest by 100,000 tonnes to 18.10m tonnes, citing dry autumn sowing weather and damage from a February frost.
The weak harvest "will raise EU import requirements of rapeseed and canola", the German-based consultancy said.
However, Ukraine, which has historically met much of the EU’s import needs, is itself expecting a weak rapeseed crop, which Oil World forecast falling by one-third to 950,000 tonnes.
"Ukrainian exports will decline sharply owing to the very small crop next season," the group said.
"This will raise the global dependence on Canadian and Australian rapeseed and canola export supplies, and will keep prices of rapeseed and canola well supported."
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/dryness-t … -4526.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed May 16, 2012 11:51 am
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