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Gold and Silver • Richard Russell – 3 Key Charts & Some Things To Think About
Richard Russell – 3 Key Charts & Some Things To Think About
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ … About.html
With key global markets at or near breakout levels, and gold turning higher in after-hours trading, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, released 3 key charts covering everything from stocks, to commodities and gold. KWN even included a bonus chart of hedge fund activity in gold. Here is what Russell had to say in a note to subscribers: “From its recent high, the Dow (intraday yesterday) was down almost 200 points. Normally, this would be considered an overdue minor “back-off” from an overbought situation … When one Average advances to a new high, and that new high is unconfirmed by the other Average, trouble may be waiting.”
“In this kind of situation, the investor who is out of the market has an advantage. He does not care how far the market may drop, because he has no commitment. In the current situation, I am on the sidelines. But what of the investor who is holding a full line of stocks?
His best bet would be to pick a downside percentage, beyond which he will not hold his stocks. The usual procedure is to decide, “I’ll sell any of my stocks that decline 8% or more from their peak price.” In other words, the careful investor always has an exit strategy in mind. The unforgivable mistake occurs when an investor rides his stocks down during a vicious correction or a bear market — all this because the stubborn investor has no pre-planned exit strategy.
Prior to the recent high, I drew attention to the fact that the Transports had advanced to a new record high, unconfirmed by the Industrials. And to make the situation even more distasteful, the market was extremely overbought. Under these conditions, I was pleased that I had suggested that my subscribers stay on the sidelines and simply watch the show.
Judging from what I see on the Bloomberg TV channel, bullishness is rampant and fear is a dirty word. We know that the VIX is at multi-year lows, meaning that at this time there is extraordinary disinterest in buying protection against a possible market fall.
We also know that advisory sentiment is heavily on the bull side of the ledger. Finally, the latest statistic on Distribution days shows that there have been seven distribution days on the NYSE Composite, and four distribution days on the NASDAQ and four on the S&P 500 — which is an unusually large number of distribution days (distribution days denote institutional selling).
Below we see a monthly chart of the Dow. You can see the resistance at the 14,000 level. In the Dow or any other metric, we often encounter resistance at the big even numbers.
The firming dollar has put pressure on commodities and gold. You can see this clearly on the chart below.
The daily chart below shows gold falling out of a descending triangle. The bright spot — RSI is signaling oversold. The negative items – volume expanded as gold fell, also the moving averages are about to cross negatively.
King World News note: Also look at the following chart below which shows hedge fund interest in gold had dipped to very low levels at the end of 2012. You can bet it has plummeted even further by now.
Statistics: Posted by DIGGER DAN — Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:14 am
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Gold and Silver • Richard Russell – World’s Supply Of Silver Dangerously Low
Richard Russell – World’s Supply Of Silver Dangerously Low
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ … y_Low.html
Today the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, warned his subscribers “… the world’s supply of silver has grown dangerously low.” Russell also had some fascinating comments regarding gold, and stocks, including some great charts. Here is what Russell had to say: “If a problem has no solution, it may not be a problem, but a fact — not to be solved, but to be coped with over time.” (Shimon Peres) As I read the quote, I relate it to the FACT of the US’s debt. This is a situation that can never be solved honestly — it’s a fact. A fact that our children or our grandchildren will have to cope with. How they cope with it will set the course of the world of tomorrow.”
“The month of January was a winner, and according to Yale Hirsch (he edits the Stock Trader’s Almanac) if January is an up month the odds are that the rest of the year will also be up. Newspaper or magazine headlines seldom get it right, but courageous Barron’s keeps trying. The cover of this week’s Barron’s shouts in large red letters — STOCK ALERT! GET READY FOR A RECORD ON THE DOW.
I’ve posted five years of the Dow on the chart below. At the bottom of the chart we see the 89-day rate-of-change. It seems so easy — all the Dow has to do is climb another 174 points, and eureka, it’s at a new record high, and at the same time it has confirmed the new record highs in the Transportation Average. Wait, note that RSI is at its severe overbought zone for the first time in almost two years. In the last five years, RSI has signaled overbought five times. At the bottom of the chart we see the 89-day rate-of-change (this is momentum).
I keep thinking about that giant surge among the silver miners. Was that surge telling us that silver is preparing to take off to the upside? I’m not sure, but it has certainly worked to keep my eyes on silver. I know that the world’s supply of silver has grown dangerously low. Whereas ten years ago there were three billion ounces of silver above ground and there for the taking, today there are less than one billion ounces of silver available. And unlike gold, silver is actually consumed.
I find the chart below of silver to be interesting. For the first time in many months, silver has closed above its 50-day MA (moving average). MACD could be in the process of turning up. Silver has now closed above its declining trendline.
Below, I keep a sharp eye on the US dollar, and you can be sure the bond market is also watching the dollar closely. Actually, all commodities should be watching the dollar, because if the dollar breaks down, it’s going to require MORE dollars to buy commodities, which is inflationary. Also, if the dollar breaks down our foreign creditors will demand more yield (higher interest rates) for buying and holding dollars.
The daily chart below shows gold’s latest action in a down-slanting flag. This flag should break to the upside, putting gold above 1700. The higher horizontal line denotes tough resistance at 1800. We should see some significant action in gold and silver this week. At the bottom of the chart we see the Dollar Index, which is declining. The declining Dollar Index should be a plus for gold.
Statistics: Posted by DIGGER DAN — Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:57 pm
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Book Forum Thursday: Debating American Exceptionalisms with Richard Gamble
Benjamin H. Friedman
Thursday at 10 AM Cato hosts Richard Gamble to discuss his book: In Search of the City on a Hill: The Making and Unmaking of an American Myth. Historians Walter McDougall and Derek Leebaert will provide commentary.
Gamble’s book traces the “city on a hill” metaphor as American self-description. We follow it from John Winthrop, who may have used the term, following the gospels, to remind the other Puritans onboard the Mayflower of their faith’s requirements, to modern conservatives like Sarah Palin, who use it in a story about the inherent virtue of the United States—the version of American exceptionalism that sees U.S. foreign policy as the engine of liberalism’s global progress.
The forum should help us make sense of recent debates—or rhetorical posturing—about American exceptionalism. Its loudest advocates today claim that their opponents, starting with President Obama, deny that the country is exceptional. What they ignore, as Gamble shows, is that their exceptionalism reverses the old kind. What made the United States exceptional upon independence was its liberal government. Most early American leaders thought that form of government would suffer from participation in European power politics. They worried that entanglement in foreign troubles would produce domestic conditions corrosive to liberty— a large military establishment and consolidated executive power. So the liberalism that made the nation exceptional meant avoiding the crusading foreign policies that modern proponents of American exceptionalism say it requires.
Here’s how Gamble put it in the American Conservative last September:
The old exceptionalism was consistent with the ethos of American constitutional democracy; the new is not. The old was an expression of and a means to sustain the habits of a self-governing people; the new is an expression of and a means to sustain a nationalist and imperialist people. The old exceptionalism suited a limited foreign policy; the new suits a messianic adventurism out to remake the world.
McDougall’s Promised Land, Crusader State: The American Encounter with the World since 1776 concerned this revolution of exceptionalism’s meaning, so his comments should be telling. Leebaert’s recent book, Magic and Mayhem: the Delusions of American Foreign Policy from Korea to Afghanistan, is also quite relevant. As moderator, I will push the speakers to answer two questions. First, aren’t we discussing competing ideas of American nationalism? Second, are the ideas we generally see as drivers of foreign policies really just their PR and power the cause of both?
Register here or watch live online.
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Richard A. Epstein: The Public Trust Doctrine
Richard A. Epstein is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of Law at New York University as well as an Adjunct Scholar at the Cato Institute. He is the author of Simple Rules for a Complex World (1995) and Skepticism and Freedom: A Modern Case for Classical Liberalism (2004), among many other books.
In this video from 1987 Epstein delivers a lecture on the public trust doctrine and includes elements of eminent domain and other means of government takings and determining what constitutes public property. Much of the lecture is based on Epstein’s 1985 book Takings: Private Property and the Power of Eminent Domain.
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Gall: Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, Says “Crony Capitalism” Not Unions Killed Hostess
Head of the AFL-CIO talks about crony capitalism. Well, he is an expert.
There are a number of things which killed the Twinkie as we know it. The fact that people are less and less interested in eating white bread, refined flower, and sugar, (though Americans are fatter than ever) probably has something to do with it.
Poor management also may have something to do with it.
But the death of the bright yellow confection is at the hands of the unions. They killed their host, or in this case Hostess.
And for Richard Trumka, the head of the AFL-CIO, to talk about “crony capitalism” is an absolute laugh. Crony capitalism for the unions delivered Ohio and Michigan to the president in the last election and kept Mr. Trumka “relevant.” Sorry, Richard, but you don’t get it both ways.
(From Politico)
“What’s happening with Hostess Brands is a microcosm of what’s wrong with America, as Bain-style Wall Street vultures make themselves rich by making America poor,” Trumka said in a public statement. “Crony capitalism and consistently poor management drove Hostess into the ground, but its workers are paying the price.”
The post Gall: Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, Says “Crony Capitalism” Not Unions Killed Hostess appeared first on AgainstCronyCapitalism.org.
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Richard Ebeling: Ludwig von Mises in Austria
Richard Ebeling is currently a professor of economics at Northwood University. He was the president of the Foundation for Economic Education from 2003 to 2008 and has published several books on Ludwig von Mises and Austrian economics.
In this Future of Freedom Foundation talk from 1994, Ebeling shares his findings from a recent trip to Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises’s hometown of Vienna. Ebeling undertook the research project to find out more about the economist’s personal life and background and managed to uncover many new primary source documents surrounding Mises’s life in Austria as a soldier in World War I, a student (and later, professor) of economics at the University of Vienna, and as secretary at the Vienna Chamber of Commerce.
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Gold and Silver • Richard Russell on the Advantages of Gold
Richard Russell on the Advantages of Gold
27 JUNE 2012 BY CULLEN ROCHE
Richard Russell has some interesting thoughts on gold that most of the gold lovers out there will enjoy. Basically, gold is a fantastic asset class for many reasons. I don’t entirely disagree, but I’ve already made my peace on gold summarizing my stance as such:
1) Gold will never work as a global currency – single currencies don’t work without government intervention (which defeats the purpose of the gold as currency argument). See Europe.
2) Gold IS money. Anything so broadly accepted as a medium of exchange is money. End of story.
3) Gold should never represent a substantial portion of one’s investment portfolio (over 5%), though this does not mean it has NO place in a portfolio. I fall along the lines of Howard Marks and Buffett to some degree here – any asset that doesn’t generate cash-flows is hard to value and nearly impossible to manage risk around. But an investment portfolio should not only contain growth vehicles. At times, it should contain assets that negatively correlate and help to reduce overall portfolio risk. Gold fits this story given the right environment (e.g., as a negative real interest rate environment has proven).
Russell has a bit of a different view and I can only assume that he would agree with point 2 of mine and reject points 1 and 3 (via King World News):
“Stocks can declare dividends, but they can omit their dividends during hard times. Furthermore, stocks can go broke. But gold represents indestructible wealth. Gold rises in terms of fiat money, and gold declines in terms of fiat money.
Gold possesses some properties that are beyond the scope of other investments. Gold can’t go broke, because gold does not derive its purchasing power from the edict or control of any sovereign power or central bank. Gold has no counter-parties. Gold is tangible and is accepted everywhere — in good times or bad. Gold exists outside the world’s banking system. Unlike fiat money, gold is wealth on its own.
It’s tangible and not the fantasy-creation of central bankers. Gold does not need a sponsor or the acceptance of an expert (such as pricing a Picasso painting), because all gold is intrinsically the same. Gold does not tarnish nor does it degenerate — the gold in your watch may be the same gold that Cleopatra wore around her neck.
The supply of gold, unlike paper money, is limited. Alchemists have tried for centuries to turn other metals into gold — but have never succeeded. Gold is a beautiful metal on its own and the lust for gold seems to be built into the DNA of mankind. If you own ten thousand ounces of gold, you can say that you will ALWAYS be wealthy.”
http://pragcap.com/richard-russell-on-t … es-of-gold
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:01 am
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Richard Ebeling: The Case for Free Trade and Open Immigration
Richard Ebeling is currently a professor of economics at Northwood University. He was the president of the Foundation for Economic Education from 2003 to 2008 and has published several books on Ludwig von Mises and Austrian economics.
In this video from a Future of Freedom Foundation conference in 1994, Ebeling presents the libertarian case for unilateral free trade and open immigration.
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Gold and Silver • KING WORLD NEWS INTERVIEW WITH RICHARD T. OBRIEN
KING WORLD NEWS INTERVIEW WITH RICHARD T. OBRIEN CEO OF NEWMONT MINNING
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldn … Brien.html
Statistics: Posted by DIGGER DAN — Fri Jun 01, 2012 4:23 am
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New Lecture on Richard Epstein’s Simple Rules for a Complex World
Today we have released the fourth lecture in our Exploring Liberty series. Richard Epstein, the author of Simple Rules for a Complex World, gives a quick outline of the six conditions that he says provide the groundwork for the emergence of a civilized society: individual autonomy, first possession/private property, contracts, tort, taxation, and eminent domain. This lecture is a great primer on how legal orders have emerged to form the complex and intricate web of relationships we know today as modern civilization.
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