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Agriculture • North Dakota Only 50% Complete Wheat Spring Planting
US crop fears retreat, for now, to frontier states
The northern and southern extremes of the US emerged as areas of residual crop concern, after a week when the rapid extent of plantings curtailed fears over the key Midwest growing region.
The record pace of corn sowings US farmers achieved in the week to Sunday was part of a planting drive which saw them seed nearly 63m acres (25.5m hectares) of major crops overall, Agrimoney.com analysis of US Department of Agriculture data shows.
That is an area a little bigger than the UK, and nearly the size of Texas, the second biggest US state after Alaska.
Besides nearly catching up with the average pace on corn seedings, after an early sowing season dogged by persistent rains and cold, farmers also brought plantings of barley, oats, rice and spring wheat back closer to the average pace.
Sugar beet growers seeded 29% of their crop over the week to get ahead of typical planting levels.
‘Severe weather’
However, in the south of the US, USDA scouts in Oklahoma flagged the threat from "severe weather", with "large hail, damaging winds and multiple tornados", even before the storm which on Monday killed at least 91 people in Oklahoma City.
The proportion of the state’s winter wheat rated in "good" or "excellent" condition as of Sunday was rated at 19%, down two points week on week, and down from 71% a year ago.
In neighbouring Texas, just 6% of the winter wheat crop made the top two grades, down three points on the week – and helping take the national figure down 1 point to 31% rated good or excellent, compared with 58% a year before.
Texas is one of the few states to have seen drought increase so far in 2013, with more than 90% rated by officials as in drought, compared with 87% at the stat of the year, and with its crops also tested by late frosts too.
"Across the Plains and North Texas, producers continued to cut much of their wheat and oat crops for hay due to previous freeze damage," USDA scouts said.
‘Ongoing dryness’
Indeed, the first national rating of the season for the US oats crop was, at 47% good or excellent, well below the 74% last year – again largely down to the poor condition of the Texas crop.
For rice, 54% of the US crop was seen in the top two condition bands, down from 66% a year ago.
In cotton, while USDA scouts have yet to produce crop ratings, plantings in Texas, the top producing state, are, at 29% complete, well behind the average.
"Ongoing dryness is continuing to delay planting in the West Texas Plains and raising overall US production concerns for 2013-14," Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.
In corn too, the Texas crop has got off to weak start, with 47% rated good or excellent, down from 69% a year ago.
‘Halted fieldwork’
Conversely, in the north of the US, too much moisture remains a problem for some areas, with the USDA reporting that in North Dakota, warm weather had given way to wetter weather to the "detriment" of arable farmers.
"Starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend, most of the state received significant rainfall amounts which halted fieldwork activities," USDA scouts said, flagging reports of up to 6 inches of rain.
North Dakota plantings of spring wheat, of which it is the top producing state, remained well behind the average, at 50% complete, a figure which Brian Henry at broker Benson Quinn Commodities said "isn’t good".
"Weekend rains will limit, if not halt, activity this week and multiple rain events are forecast through the end of month," he said.
"Right now the potential of lost acres is limited to low areas, which could have been farmed prior to this rain, being off limits."
‘Unlikely to get intended corn planted’
Fear of North Dakota acreage loss is being raised in the corn market too, given that its farmers still had 39% to plant as of Sunday, even after a huge effort last week, and with insurance deadlines approaching, on May 25 and May 31.
"I hear reports that portions of North Dakota are unlikely to get intended corn planted by May 25 prevent plant date which could swing 500,000 acres or more from corn to soybeans," said Richard Feltes at RJ O’Brien, the Chicago-based broker.
While the North Dakota corn planting pace, in terms of the percentage of sowings completed, is only a little behind the average for 2008-12, the comparison is skewed by the huge increase in the popularity of the grain in the state.
North Dakota farmers intend to sow 4.1m acres of corn this year, up 84% in two years.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-crop-f … -5861.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Tue May 21, 2013 10:00 am
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Agriculture • Drought, cold cripple U.S. winter wheat crop – Western Kansa
By Roxana Hegeman
11 May 2013
(AP) – The winter wheat crop is expected to be far smaller this season compared to last, particularly for hard red varieties used in bread, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday.
In the first government projection on the harvest’s anticipated size, the National Agricultural Statistics Service estimated winter wheat production will be down 10 percent to 1.49 billion bushels, due to fewer acres — 32.7 million acres, some 6 percent fewer acres than a year ago — and a 1.8-bushel decrease in average yields, to 45.4 bushels per acre.
The government’s forecast comes amid a season marked by drought and late spring freezes in the Midwest’s major wheat growing areas, particularly in Kansas — the nation’s biggest wheat-producing state. […]
Nationwide production of hard red winter wheat, typically used to make bread, is expected to decline 23 percent to 768 million bushels. But that’ll be offset somewhat by soft red winter wheat types — favored for cookies and pastries — which are projected to be up 19 percent at 501 million bushels.
One bushel of wheat yields about 42 pounds of flour — enough to make 73 loaves of bread.
Far western Kansas is considered a disaster area, and farmers told tour participants earlier this month that crop insurance agents have already begun writing off acres there. Wheat tour participants examined 570 fields, finding that in south-central Kansas, which got late winter snowstorms and heavy spring rains, the wheat looks good and production there is expected to offset a bit the losses elsewhere in the state. [more]
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/05 … wheat.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed May 15, 2013 1:45 pm
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Agriculture • UK wheat imports top 2m tonnes, and to stay strong
UK wheat imports top 2m tonnes, and to stay strong
UK wheat imports jumped past the 2m tonne mark with three months of the season yet to go, according to customs data which also showed an uptick in rapeseed buy-ins – potentially also a taste of things to come.
The UK – the European Union’s third biggest wheat producer, and typically a net exporter – imported 251,000 tonnes of wheat in March, as consumers again turned to foreign supplies to fill the void left by the worst-quality harvest in a generation last year, when much of the crop failed to meet even feed specifications.
The imports, four times bigger than those brought in in March 2012, took the total for the first nine months of 2012-13 to 2.12m tonnes.
Canada and Germany, sources of hard milling wheat, were again the top origins for supplies, meeting demand from flour mills of whom only a tiny percentage of the UK crop met specifications, after the second wettest year on record devastated both yields and quality.
More than Saudi Arabia?
The monthly pace implies UK imports topping 2.8m tonnes over the season – more than the likes of Saudi Arabia or Bangladesh are expected to buy in.
Many traders believe that buyers have secured sufficient supplies to allow a slower pace of shipments towards the end of the season, although calculations are being reworked because of the slow development of this year’s UK crop, and the unusually-large proportion of spring-sown grain, which is harvested later.
After persistent rains late in 2012 prevented more than 20% of autumn-planted wheat from being seeded, cold and wet weather this year hampered spring sowings too.
Indeed, the UK looks set in 2013-14 as well to be a net importer of wheat, and perhaps also of rapeseed, given the damage caused by the weather, and the pests, notably slugs, that it has encouraged.
Rapeseed concerns
Oil World last week cut its estimate for the harvest in the UK, which consumes getting on for 2m tonnes of rapeseed a year, to 1.8-1.9m tonnes, and many other commentators have far lower estimates, including some below 1.5m tonnes.
"At long last, the true state of the UK rapeseed crop seems to be getting through to the wider world," traders at a major European commodities house said.
Last year’s rapeseed harvest was 2.56m tonnes, and while this has proven sufficient to keep the UK comfortably as a net exporter of the oilseed, imports in March topped 8,000 tonnes for the first time since August 2011.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/uk-wheat- … -5835.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Tue May 14, 2013 12:11 pm
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Agriculture • Wheat prices dip after US foresees huge world crop
Wheat prices dip after US foresees huge world crop
Wheat prices extended losses after US farm officials lifted the bar on estimates for this year’s world harvest of the grain, and cautioned over heightened competition among exporters to secure orders.
The US Department of Agriculture, in its first forecasts for 2013-14 season, pegged the world wheat harvest at a record 701.10m tonnes, lifted by a sharp recovery in former Soviet Union harvest, and increases in Australia, Canada and the European Union too.
"Production is projected higher in all of the world’s major exporting countries," the USDA said in its benchmark Wasde report on world crop supply and demand.
Indeed, the Russian harvest was seen rebounding 49% from last year’s drought-affected levels to 56.0m tonnes, narrowly overtaking US production.
The world figure was above forecasts from other commentators, including a 695m-tonne forecast from the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization on Thursday, and a 680m-tonne estimate from the International Grains Council.
Export competition
With all major world wheat exporting enjoying strong harvests, the US itself faced a drop of nearly 10% in its own shipments, to 25.2m tonnes (925m bushels).
Wasde wheat estimates, change on last and (on market forecast)
2012-13 US carryout stocks: 731m bushels, unchanged, (-2m bushels)
2012-13 world carryout stocks: 180.17m tonnes, -2.089m tonnes, (-1.36m tonnes)
2013-14 US carryout stocks: 670m bushels, N/A, (+12,000 bushels)
2013-14 world carryout stocks: 186.38m tonnes, N/A, (+2.01m tonnes)
Sources: USDA, ThomsonReuters
"Large crops for major export competitors limit opportunities for US wheat," the USDA said.
The impact was exacerbated by strong crops in many importing nations, with Middle Eastern purchases, for instance, expected to drop more than 20%.
"Also affecting global trade prospects are year-to-year production increases for major importers, the Middle East and North Africa, where weather has been favourable for winter crops since seeding last fall," the USDA said.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wheat-pri … -5823.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Sun May 12, 2013 12:37 pm
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Agriculture • Informa cuts winter wheat estimate after tour data
Informa cuts winter wheat estimate after tour data
Informa Economics raised to 20% its estimate for the drop in the US hard red winter wheat crop as analysts digested the on-the-ground estimates which forecast the largest crop abandonment rate in Kansas since 1996, when prices set a record high.
Informa cut by 52m bushels to 798m bushels its forecast for the hard red winter wheat harvest, which accounts for the majority of the US winter crop.
The downgrade followed the closing on Thursday of the annual Wheat Quality Council tour, which pegged the yield in the top growing state of Kansas at 41.1 bushels per acre, below an estimate of 49.1 bushels per acre at least year’s event, and an actual 2012 yield of 42.0 bushels per acre.
Comparison with 1996
A separate tour of neighbouring Oklahoma, another major hard red winter wheat state, estimated the yield at 25.45 bushels per acre, down nearly 30% from the 2012 actual yield of 36.0 bushels per acre.
Meanwhile, the Nebraska Wheat Growers Association estimated the Nebraska crop at 30 bushels per acre, down 27% year on year, while Colorado Wheat pegged the Colorado yield in line with last year’s, at 34 bushels per acre, but with a higher abandonment rate.
Signally, the Wheat Quality Council tour pegged the Kansas abandonment rate at 18%, which would be the highest since 1996, when the state’s harvest was the smallest, bar one, since 1968 – sapped by dryness and relatively late hard freezes, albeit not into May as seen this year.
The poor state of the state’s 1996 crop helped drive hard red winter wheat futures, as traded in Kansas City, to a record high of $7.44 a bushel that year – a level not seen again for a further 11 years.
Range of estimates
Informa pegged the overall US winter wheat harvest this year at 1.529bn bushels, down from the previous estimate of 1.581bn bushels
The forecast for the soft red winter wheat harvest was nudged 1m bushels lower to 508m bushels, with the forecast for white winter wheat production left unchanged at 222m bushels.
Nonetheless the estimates are higher than those from some other analysts, including Lanworth, which this week forecast a 1.45bn-bushel winter crop, including 720.7m bushels of hard red winter wheat.
Market estimates for the hard red winter wheat crop reported to Agrimoney.com have tended to be around the 750m-780m bushel mark, although Australia & New Zealand Bank forecast a drop of only 15% in output, to some 850m bushels.
Last year, the overall US winter wheat harvest reached 1.68m bushels, according to US Department of Agriculture data.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/informa-c … -5801.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Sat May 04, 2013 2:18 am
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Agriculture • Canadian farmers planning huge wheat plantings
Canadian farmers planning huge wheat plantings
Canadian farmers are planning even bigger switch to wheat this year than had been thought, at the expense of barley and rapeseed – although the late spring could yet thwart their ambitions.
Growers in Canada, the world’s third-ranked wheat exporter after the US and the European Union, intend to hike sowings of the grain by 12.3% to 26.6m acres (10.77m hectares), an official survey showed.
Some increase in area had been expected from last year, thanks to price signals, with Canada’s farm ministry last week flagging the incentive offered by "good prices, low carry-in stocks and a shift out of canola", of which yields last year proved very disappointing.
However, the extent of the increase in Wednesday’s Statistics Canada report proved far larger than the 7% rise to 25.23m acres that the farm ministry forecast.
Investors had expected a figure of 24.4m acres.
Assuming a 2% abandonment rate, and a typical yield of 1.1-1.2 tonnes per hectare, the StatsCan figure implies a potential harvest of some 30m tonnes, the highest in 23 years.
‘Trade is somewhat sceptical’
However, the data prompted some disbelief among analysts, with Richard Feltes, at Chicago based broker RJ O’Brien, saying the "trade is somewhat sceptical of the much-higher-than expected StatsCan wheat area, especially in light of delayed start to 2013 seeding".
Plantings of spring crops in much of North America have been slowed by cold and overly wet weather, but particularly in the northern US and Canada, much of which is still covered with snow, which presents a flooding risk with melt expected to speed up with the onset of warmer temperatures this weekend.
US Department of Agriculture officials in North Dakota, the country’s main spring wheat state, on Monday reported that snow cover averaged 5.9 inches across the state, and forecast that farmers would not begin fieldwork until May 5, at which time growers have usually planted more than one-third of their crop.
StatsCan said in its report that "farmers may modify their plans prior to planting time as a result of environmental conditions.
"Some farmers reported that they were still undecided about their final strategies for 2013 as snow lingered in fields in most parts of Canada at the time of the survey," undertaken around the turn of month.
Rapeseed prices rise
Farmers intend to draw the extra wheat area from an even bigger drop in canola plantings than had been thought after last year’s result, when yields tumbled nearly 20%, hurt by poor weather and disease pressures encouraged by repeated sowings.
The canola area was pegged at 19.133m acres (7.74m hectares), a drop of 11.1% year on year.
The farm ministry last week pegged plantings of the rapeseed variant at 21.25m acres, with analysts forecasting a 20.3m-acre figure.
The immediate market impact was to send Winnipeg canola prices 0.5% higher to $642.50 a tonne, for May delivery.
In Paris, rapeseed for May touched E487.75 a tonne, among the highest prices for a spot contract in the last six months, before easing back to E468.25 a tonne as of 16:20 local time (15:20 UK time), a gain of 0.9%.
Barley area to decline?
Canadian growers also intend to cut sowings to barley, down 2.2% to 7.2m acres according to the StatsCan report, contrasting with the rise to 7.78m acres expected by the farm ministry.
However, sowing delays would tend to favour barley, which has a shorter growing season than wheat.
Canadian farmers intent to plant record areas for corn, up 2.0% at 2.3m acres, and soybeans, up 3.4% at 4.3m acres, according to StatsCan.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/canadian- … -5764.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed Apr 24, 2013 10:13 am
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Agriculture • Rains to skip US winter wheat ‘disaster zones’
Rains to skip US winter wheat ‘disaster zones’
Rains this week look likely to skip drought-hit areas of the US Plains which remain "disaster zones" for winter wheat, with 26% of the South Dakota crop lost to winterkill, contrasting with the healthy condition of Midwest seedlings.
Weather service MDA said that rain is due for southern Plains states such as Kansas, the top wheat producing state, providing further relief from drought which sent seedlings heading into dormancy in their worst condition since at least the 1990s.
However, MDA’s Don Keeley said that "dry weather will continue in the central Plains" states, such as Nebraska and South Dakota, where thanks to a lack of moisture winter wheat crops remain in historically weak condition.
‘Disaster zones’
The US Department of Agriculture overnight, in its first national crop progress report of 2013, showed just 2% of the South Dakota winter wheat crop rated in "good" or "excellent" condition – down from 52% a year ago.
US wheat rated good or excellent, change on week and (year on year)
Illinois: 68%, +3 points, (-10 points)
Kansas: 31%, +2 points, (-29 points)
Oklahoma: 27%, +1 point, (N/A)
Texas: 16%, -3 points, (-18 points)
Colorado: 12%, unchanged, (-28 points)
Nebraska: 10%, +4 points, (N/A)
South Dakota: 2%, unchanged, (-50 points)
Comparison with data for April 1 2012
In South Dakota, "26% of the winter wheat acreage was reported lost to winterkill," with cold weather holding up spring sowings too, USDA scouts said.
In Nebraska, 10% of the crop made the top two grades, with the Colorado figure at 12%.
"The central Plains states are disaster zones," Jonathan Watters at broker Benson Quinn Commodities said, terming the condition ratings "all record low" for a USDA opening crop progress briefing.
‘Slightly improved’
The comments contrasted with improvement in Kansas, where 31% of wheat was rated good or excellent, up two points on the previous week, and a reflection of easing drought.
The figure for Kansas, which like other southern Plains states grows hard red winter wheat varieties, was "far from ideal, but slightly improved from the winter and nowhere near record lows", Mr Watters said.
In neighbouring Oklahoma, the proportion of winter wheat rated good or excellent rose one point over the week to 27%, despite temperatures which fell as low as 13 degrees, raising fears for damage of crops which, in emerging from dormancy, lost some of their resistance to cold.
National picture
However, these figures fell well behind those noted for the Midwest, which grows the soft red winter wheat traded in Chicago, and the western white wheat states.
In Illinois, 68% of winter wheat was in good or excellent health, and in Washington state 72%.
The national figure came in at 34%, well behind the 58% a year before, and the worst start since 2002.
Then the winter crop started with a 31% good or excellent rating, and went on to record a 12.0% fall in yield to 38.2 bushels per acre, which remains the lowest reading of the last 16 years.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/rains-to- … -5680.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:30 am
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Agriculture • World wheat crop to rebound, but not set record
World wheat crop to rebound, but not set record
World wheat production will rise "significantly" in 2013-14, but will not set a new record, and prove insufficient to foster a recovery in inventories held by major exporters, the US Department of Agriculture said.
USDA officials, expanding on forecasts on Thursday of a 169m-bushel drop to 2.10bn bushels in domestic production in the forthcoming season, said that the decline would not be mirrored in rival exporting countries.
"World wheat production is expected to recover significantly from last year, with all major exporting countries except the US expected to have larger crops," the USDA said in a report to its annual Outlook conference.
The European Union and the major former Soviet Union producers, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine, would "account for the majority of the increase".
‘Stocks not expected to expand’
Nonetheless, the world harvest will fall short of the record 696.6m tonnes set in 2011-12, the report said, while failing to put a number on its estimate.
Nor will the harvests prove sufficient to rebuild inventories held by major exporters, which are poised to end this season at their tightest in four years, and are seen as a particularly important pricing signal.
While stocks countries such as China are believed to hold large wheat inventories, they are not available to the market, limiting their impact on prices.
"Despite near-record production projections, exporter ending stocks are not expected to expand as strong global demand and supply are projected to nearly balance," the briefing said.
‘Limited scope for stock rebuilding’
The estimates follow a forecast from the International Grains Council that world wheat production will increase to 682m tonnes in 2013-14, but without making a big impact on rebuilding inventories.
"While only a small increase in global consumption is forecast, much of the rise in supply is absorbed, leaving limited scope for stock rebuilding," the IGC said.
The USDA underlined that its estimates showed that domestic stocks "remains far from tight", expected to end 2013-14 at 28.0%.
Its estimates of a drop in the domestic harvest assume a loss of 17% of sown wheat, "due to the continuation of drought this past fall and winter in the hard red winter wheat area".
The average rate of loss of 13%.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/world-whe … -5552.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:41 am
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Agriculture • US officials restate warning over China wheat crop
US officials restate warning over China wheat crop
US foreign staff have, again, challenged official estimates of a bumper Chinese wheat harvest last year, citing disease damage, and cautioned that ideas of the corn crop may be too high too.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Beijing bureau restated an estimate made in November that China’s wheat harvest fell by more than 9m tonnes last year, to 108.0m tonnes, "due to head blight", or fusarium, outbreaks in major growing provinces such as Anhui, Henan and Hubei.
The estimate is more than 12m tonnes below the USDA’s official estimate, which is in turn in line with the figure from China’s own National Bureau of Statistics of 120.58m tonnes.
And the bureau cited as evidence of the squeeze on wheat supplies a rise in prices of some 9% rise to 2,360 remninbi a tonne in Chinese wheat prices between August and January, quoting data from analysis group JCI.
"This is a strong indication that wheat production and total available supplies are lower than Chinese official production estimates," the bureau said in a report.
Chicago wheat prices fell by more than 10% over the same period.
‘High levels of vomitoxin’
Some commentators have noted, in defending ideas of a higher wheat crop, the relatively low rate of Chinese imports, which the USDA bureau acknowledged could fall nearly 15%, to 2.0m tonnes, in 2012-13.
However, the report also flagged the impact of sales from state wheat reserves in cushioning the impact of last year’s poor harvest, especially on quality shortfalls given that these sales are largely of crop from previous years rather than 2012 crop of which "some still may be infect with head blight".
Indeed, the "possibility of high levels" of vomitoxin – a toxic residue from fusarium infections – in last year’s crop has prompted Chinese officials to order state grain companies "to strictly follow domestic safety standards while purchasing wheat".
The impact of last year’s poor crop may not be felt until further ahead, if the 2013 harvest also disappoints, forcing Chinese authorities to turn to turn to stored 2012 crop, with its vomitoxin risk.
"If 2013-14 production is less than expected or suffers from a similar disease outbreak, depending on how much of the 2012-13 wheat crop may be infected with head blight and comprise current reserve levels, there is a possibility that China may need to further increase imports in order to meet domestic demand."
‘Pests, typhoon and drought’
The data dispute is the latest in a series of wranglings over the accuracy of Chinese harvest statistics, which critics claim tend to offer inflated estimates thanks to a subsidy programme which rewards regional authorities by output, so encouraging over-reporting.
Typically, the spotlight has fallen on discrepancies in corn – in which China’s balance sheet is particularly important to markets given the country’s likely move from being self-sufficient to a perennial importer, and in quantity.
USDA estimates on Monday forecast Chinese corn imports growing from 2.0m tonnes this season to 19.5m tonnes in a decade’s time, overtaking the likes of Japan and Mexico to become the world;s top buyer.
The bureau estimated last year’s Chinese corn crop at 200m tonnes, up 4.2% year on year, but 8m tonnes below the official USDA number.
"According to agricultural sources, yields in some areas were affected by factors such as army worm outbreaks, a typhoon and drought," the report said.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-offici … -5508.html
Statistics: Posted by yoda — Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:22 pm
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